Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in Qira Oases: The Case of Qira Oases in South of Tarim Basin
绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例

Based on years of on-the-spot investigated materials and statistical data, this paper analyses the overall tendency, spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Qira oases in the south of Tarim Basin. Based on GPS instant positioning, initial prediction of the cultivated land amount of Qira oases in 2010 and 2020 was carried out by means of establishing multiple regression mode and GIS aided spatial analysis. The result shows that dynamic changes of society and economy, improvement of agricultural technology, restrictions of water and land resources are three primary factors influencing cultivated land amount change in the arid area. The authors believe that this study will provide scientific basis for sustainable oasis agricultural development of this region.