%0 Journal Article
%T Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in Qira Oases: The Case of Qira Oases in South of Tarim Basin<br>绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例
%A Wahap HALIK
%A Hamid YIMIT
%A Tashpulat TEYIP
%A <br>瓦哈甫·
%A 哈力克
%A 海米提·
%A 依米提
%A 塔西甫拉提·
%A 特依拜
%A 熊黑钢
%J 地理学报
%D 2004
%I 
%X Based on years of on-the-spot investigated materials and statistical data, this paper analyses the overall tendency, spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Qira oases in the south of Tarim Basin. Based on GPS instant positioning, initial prediction of the cultivated land amount of Qira oases in 2010 and 2020 was carried out by means of establishing multiple regression mode and GIS aided spatial analysis. The result shows that dynamic changes of society and economy, improvement of agricultural technology, restrictions of water and land resources are three primary factors influencing cultivated land amount change in the arid area. The authors believe that this study will provide scientific basis for sustainable oasis agricultural development of this region.
%K oases of arid area
%K driving factor
%K cultivated land
%K multivariate analysis<br>干旱区绿洲
%K 驱动因子
%K 耕地
%K 多元分析
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=869B153A4C6B5B85&jid=F7B5B947C24B9D649491012214E4BEF4&aid=7F0E7E87EAB879E0&yid=D0E58B75BFD8E51C&vid=6AC2A205FBB0EF23&iid=E158A972A605785F&sid=C7B13290323C226E&eid=2C20277AC27E4821&journal_id=0375-5444&journal_name=地理学报&referenced_num=40&reference_num=43