SI Models and Piecewise SI Model on SARS Forecasting
SARS预测的SI模型和分段SI模型

This paper introduces and sets up some kinds of nonlinear growth models, the SI(Susceptible and infective) model and piecewise SI model, for forecasting clinical diagnose cumulative SARS(Severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases is Beijing. The 95% confidence interval of the time change point on piecewise SI model is made well which includes April 21, 22 and 23. It means some control policies in Beijing at the end of this April 24 played an important role for anti-spreading of SARS, after change of increase rate for SARS cases is quite significant.