%0 Journal Article
%T SI Models and Piecewise SI Model on SARS Forecasting<br>SARS预测的SI模型和分段SI模型
%A LI Zhong-lai
%A CUI Heng-jian
%A YANG Hua
%A LI Xiao-wen
%A <br>李仲来
%A 崔恒建
%A 杨华
%A 李小文
%J 遥感学报
%D 2003
%I 
%X This paper introduces and sets up some kinds of nonlinear growth models, the SI(Susceptible and infective) model and piecewise SI model, for forecasting clinical diagnose cumulative SARS(Severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases is Beijing. The 95% confidence interval of the time change point on piecewise SI model is made well which includes April 21, 22 and 23. It means some control policies in Beijing at the end of this April 24 played an important role for anti-spreading of SARS, after change of increase rate for SARS cases is quite significant.
%K Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS)
%K susceptible and infective model
%K piecewise susceptible and infective model
%K change point<br>SARS预测
%K SI模型
%K 分段SI模型
%K 严重急性呼吸综合症
%K 转变点
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=E62459D214FD64A3C8082E4ED1ABABED5711027BBBDDD35B&cid=A41A70F4AB56AB1B&jid=F926358B31AC94511E4382C083F7683C&aid=5EAB777261F5C56F&yid=D43C4A19B2EE3C0A&vid=DF92D298D3FF1E6E&iid=94C357A881DFC066&sid=3622B70F9C54A9CC&eid=31125890FF093250&journal_id=1007-4619&journal_name=遥感学报&referenced_num=6&reference_num=4