Study of the Mathematical Models of Development Trend of the Digital Library Researches in China
中国数字图书馆研究发展趋势的数学模型研究

This study reviews and analyzes the research papers on digital library in China with CNKI.The statistics indicates that the time series of the data basically accords with "life cycle phenomenon",which can be fit by Verhulst equation.The authors introduce a fuzzy disturbance factor(FDF) and propose two new modified mathematical models named subsection model and filtering model for better fitting and forecasting.This work will advance the quantitative research methods in library fields.