Forecast and analysis of oil production in China based on system dynamics
基于系统动力学的中国石油产量预测分析

China's ultimate recoverable reserves which are the resource base affecting oil production are forecasted and analyzed;system dynamics model for oil production forecasting is built based on basic principles of system dynamics;and parameters of variables such as the oil recovery rate of remaining recoverable reserves in the model are determined.Forecast results show that the ultimate recoverable reserves of oil in China are between 123 and 143 million tons,and the average amount is 134 million tons. Furtherm...