Uncertainty Analysis for Construction Scheduling with Flexible Network Simulation
施工进度计划柔性网络仿真的不确定性研究

With the computer simulation for engineering construction based on flexible network, a breakthrough is made on the limitation of conventional PERT network planning which considers only single critical path and assumes that the duration of every activity conforms to beta distribution. Thus the simulation duration and critical path are not constant and each simulation result can only be regarded as a sample of the system model. Combining network planning simulation techniques and risk analysis, methods for counting the simulation running times and calculating completion probability or schedule risk are proposed. Besides, "activity critical index" is used to reflect the distribution of critical path. The uncertainty of construction scheduling planning is better described and more information about construction management is provided.