%0 Journal Article
%T Uncertainty Analysis for Construction Scheduling with Flexible Network Simulation<br>施工进度计划柔性网络仿真的不确定性研究
%A ZHONG Deng-hua
%A LIU Kui-jian
%A Yang Xiao-gang
%A <br>钟登华
%A 刘奎建
%A 杨晓刚
%J 系统工程理论与实践
%D 2005
%I 
%X With the computer simulation for engineering construction based on flexible network, a breakthrough is made on the limitation of conventional PERT network planning which considers only single critical path and assumes that the duration of every activity conforms to beta distribution. Thus the simulation duration and critical path are not constant and each simulation result can only be regarded as a sample of the system model. Combining network planning simulation techniques and risk analysis, methods for counting the simulation running times and calculating completion probability or schedule risk are proposed. Besides, "activity critical index" is used to reflect the distribution of critical path. The uncertainty of construction scheduling planning is better described and more information about construction management is provided.
%K uncertainty analysis
%K flexible network simulation
%K construction scheduling
%K completion probability
%K activity critical index<br>不确定性分析
%K 柔性网络仿真
%K 施工进度计划
%K 完工概率
%K 工序关键度
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=01BA20E8BA813E1908F3698710BBFEFEE816345F465FEBA5&cid=962324E222C1AC1D&jid=1D057D9E7CAD6BEE9FA97306E08E48D3&aid=9C19B71D1CAC273D&yid=2DD7160C83D0ACED&vid=C5154311167311FE&iid=0B39A22176CE99FB&sid=D767283A3B658885&eid=4BB057F167CF3A60&journal_id=1000-6788&journal_name=系统工程理论与实践&referenced_num=8&reference_num=9