Bayesian Method for Binomial Reliability Growth Based on the Dirichlet Prior Distribution
基于Dirichlet 先验分布的Bayes 二项可靠性增长方法

Because of the complexity of product system and high costs for test of product,the reliability growth testing is based on small sample.It is important to research on solution of small sample in the reliability growth.Based on the Dirichlet prior distribution,Bayesian method for binomial reliability growth is studied.Through compared with conventional binomial Bayesian method,the method based on the Dirichlet prior distribution is more proper in the staggered reliability growth testing,it is easy to confirm the parameters of prior distribution by using the transcendental information,such as the experiences of experts and the testing data of similar product.Then the parameters of posterior distribution are calculated by using the simulation method of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC).At last,some examples are given.