%0 Journal Article
%T Bayesian Method for Binomial Reliability Growth Based on the Dirichlet Prior Distribution<br>基于Dirichlet 先验分布的Bayes 二项可靠性增长方法
%A YU Tian-xiang
%A SONG Bi-feng
%A FENG Yun-wen
%A <br>喻天翔
%A 宋笔锋
%A 冯蕴文
%J 系统工程理论与实践
%D 2006
%I 
%X Because of the complexity of product system and high costs for test of product,the reliability growth testing is based on small sample.It is important to research on solution of small sample in the reliability growth.Based on the Dirichlet prior distribution,Bayesian method for binomial reliability growth is studied.Through compared with conventional binomial Bayesian method,the method based on the Dirichlet prior distribution is more proper in the staggered reliability growth testing,it is easy to confirm the parameters of prior distribution by using the transcendental information,such as the experiences of experts and the testing data of similar product.Then the parameters of posterior distribution are calculated by using the simulation method of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC).At last,some examples are given.
%K reliability growth model
%K Bayesian theory
%K Dirichlet distribution
%K small sample
%K Markov-Chain Monte Carlo<br>可靠性增长模型
%K Bayesian方法
%K Dirichlet分布
%K 小子样
%K MCMC方法
%U http://www.alljournals.cn/get_abstract_url.aspx?pcid=01BA20E8BA813E1908F3698710BBFEFEE816345F465FEBA5&cid=962324E222C1AC1D&jid=1D057D9E7CAD6BEE9FA97306E08E48D3&aid=BCD7E91ACA51665C&yid=37904DC365DD7266&vid=96C778EE049EE47D&iid=CA4FD0336C81A37A&sid=6DE26652A1045643&eid=5E25104E99903E8A&journal_id=1000-6788&journal_name=系统工程理论与实践&referenced_num=4&reference_num=11