Validación de un pronóstico de lluvia mensual en México

the categorical evaluation of the stochastic model for rainfall forecasting, at 31 locations in mexico, based on the enso phases, showed a rate of monthly hits of 0.63 during the year of the study. however, the hanssen-kuipers score that evaluates forecast models indicated a score of 0.499 for the year. it was considered a partly acceptable model as the validation of a larger number of forecasts is required to obtain a more accurate scoring.