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An Integrated approach for fuzzy logistic regression
Aynur ?ahin,Nimet Yap?c? Pehlivan
- , 2018,
Abstract: The aim of this study is to introduced an integrated fuzzy logistic regression approach to describe the relationship between crisp inputs and fuzzy binary output. For this reason, we integrated the fuzzy logistic regression methods proposed by Pourahmad et al. [17] and Sohn et al. [24] to define a possibility measure for each case and then used the logarithmic transformation of possibilistic odds as fuzzy output observations. To estimate the parameters of the fuzzy logistic regression model, Diamond [5]’s Fuzzy Least Squares (FLS) approach is used. A numerical example is presented and obtained results are compared with classic logistic regression model
ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES IN TURKEY: FOURIER APPROACH
Esra N. KILCI
- , 2019,
Abstract: Within the framework of inflation targeting regime officially implemented since 2006, the primary objective of the Central Bank Republic of Turkey is to achieve and maintain price stability. As a result of instrumental independence, the CBRT determines the monetary policy it would implement and the policy instruments it would use in achieving and maintaining price stability. In this context, The CBRT uses a policy mix including one-week repo rate, the interest rate corridor between O/N borrowing and lending rates, and reserve requirements to achieve price stability and to provide financial stability with regard to controlling of financial risks which have the potential to threat price stability. The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term relationship between the O/N repo rates to approximate interest rates and the consumer price index to approximate price changes during the period of 2005-2017. Using monthly data, the Fourier Co-integration Test is employed to test the relationship between O/N repo rates and CPI. The findings indicate that there is long-term relationship between O/N repo rates and CPI
Panel Logit Models: An Application on Banking Sector
- , 2019,
Abstract: Nowadays, it is vital for banks to increase their market shares due to the fact that the banking sector has an intense competition and a wide range of competitive products and services. The fact that banks constantly monitor their market shares and make the necessary analyzes in this regard will enable them to take precautions in case of a negative course. In this study, taking into account the impact of the February 2001 crisis, variables which were effective in the change of market share of banks were estimated by using Panel Logit Models for the period of 1990-2007. In the study, 20 financial ratios were used as explanatory variables and total loans was taken as a dependent variable. It is aimed that the results of the analysis will guide the short and medium term planning in the banking sector
Investigation of Traffic Accident Rates in Tunceli Province
Bilgin ZENG?N
- , 2018,
Abstract: In this study, we examine the number of traffic accidents in Tunceli between 2012 and 2016 including casualties and wounded in these accidents and the results are compared with accident rates in Turkey. Accidents per vehicle, number of casualty and injury rates are obtained in the years. In order to make a meaningful interpretation, the averages of the percentages were calculated carefully. In addition, the number of vehicles per capita of Tunceli province and Turkey have been computed and then their averages were calculated for the further analysis. It is found that the number of vehicles per capita in Turkey is 2.83 times higher than the average of Tunceli province. In contrast to this situation, when the average percentage of accidents per vehicle is considered; we see that Tunceli province’s percentage is 2.33 times larger than Turkey’s one. Besides, we also conclude that the average values of dead and injured per vehicle are 2.67 and 2.77 times larger than the general percentages of Turkey, respectively. Moreover, although the number of vehicles per capita in Tunceli province is very low compared to the average in Turkey, the causes of large accidents, casualties and injuries have also been examined in terms of vehicle types. From this perspective, it is seen that that the ratio of public transport vehicles (bus + minibus) to the total number in Tunceli province and Turkey are 9.94% and 3.45%, respectively. Thus, we conclude that the rate of public transportation of Tunceli province is 2.88 times larger than the Turkey’s general rate. These calculations show us that there is a greater possibility of having traffic accidents in Tunceli province by public transport. Hence, the interesting data we obtained explains how the rates of deaths and injuries by accident in Tunceli province are about 3 times larger than the average of Turkey
THE EFFECT OF US-CHINA TRADE WARS ON SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX
BUKET ALTIN?Z,SERDAR ?ZTüRK
- , 2019,
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of US import tariffs on Chinese goods and China import tariffs on US goods on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for the period from 1991 to 2016. It is selected Chinese main macroeconomic variables as control variables. For this purpose, it is used ARDL boundary testing approach in this study. Empirical results suggest that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai stock index in the long term. In addition, broad money supply and inflation rate, which are two of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, has a positive impact on it. Consequently, the US-China trade war, which based on US import tariffs on Chinese goods, damages for China stock market. With these results we cannot say whether the US is a winner or loser, but we can say that China is definitely the loser
DETERMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PARTICIPATION BANK’S PROFIT RATES AND DEPOSIT BANK’S INTEREST RATES WITH NON-PERFORMING LOAN(NPL) RATIOS
Harun Koluk?sa
- , 2018,
Abstract: Participation banks’s credit profit rates are higher than depozit bank’s credit interest rates. It is believed that, eventhough with higher financing costs, customers who choose participation banks over to deposit banks shall have a problematic profile that has lower payment power. Therefore, it is expected that paticiptaion bank’s NPL ratios would be higher than depozit bank’s NPL ratios. Monthly profit rates applied for credits and non-performing loan(NPL) ratios of participation banks which are operating in Turkey, monthly interest rates applied for credits and NPL ratios of deposit banks which are operating in Turkey for the time between January 2005 and September 2015 are used. For determining the relationship between participation bank’s profit rates and deposit bank’s interest rates with NPL ratios; correlation, unit root test, VAR, Granger causality, and impulse-response analyses are applied. Due to analyese’s results, NPL ratios are not direct result of profit/interest rates. In the light of analyses, it is determined that participation bank’s higher profits rates for credit are not resulted to higher NPL ratio as it is foreseen
After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Turkey Emerging Public Expenditure Policies Impact on Employment Rates
- , 2018,
Abstract: The global financial crisis, which began in USA in 2008, had effected the whole world countries including Turkey as a result of globalization and integrated economies. The crisis caused by risky and non-returnable loans in mortgage markets in the United States negatively affected financial and real markets globally. In this framework, countries developed various monetary and fiscal policies in order to mitigate the adverse effects of the crisis on economies. In this study, the relationship between the public expenditure, a significant instrument of fiscal policies implemented by the government, and the employment rates for the post-crisis period is explained. In addition to this explanation, the relationship between public expenditure and employment rates between 2006Q1-2016Q4 was analyzed according to the Toda- Yamamoto Granger causality test. As a result, unidirectional causality running from post- crisis public expenditure policies to employment rates is determine
The Investigation of Association between Financial Performance and Stock Returns by Entropy and TOPSIS Methods
?zcan I?IK
- , 2019,
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the association between financial performance and stock returns. The study covers the annual data of firms traded in the Borsa Istanbul 30 Index for the period 2014-2017. While Entropy method is used to determine the weights of financial variables in the analysis process, TOPSIS ranking method based on financial ratios is employed to determine the financial performance of firms. In addition, the relationship between financial performance and stock returns is investigated using correlation analysis. The results of the study suggest that there is no significant relationship between firm financial performance and stock returns
The Stock Selection with Ward, K-Means and Two-Steps Clustering Analysis Methods Based on the Financial Indicators
- , 2018,
Abstract: In this study, a data mining approach for classification of stocks into clusters is presented. After classification, the stocks could be selected from these groups for building a portfolio. This study aims to create an effective portfolio from stocks traded in Stock Exchange Istanbul using three different clustering analysis methods. Another purpose of the study is to test the availability of clustering analysis methods to create an efficient portfolio of stocks. For these purposes, a total of 69 stocks were clustered by using Ward method as a hierarchical clustering method, K-Means method as a non-hierarchical clustering method, and two-step clustering (hybrid) method. The financial indicators that used in this study were obtained from financial statements and stock price movements of companies. As a result of the study, clusters formed according to all three methods are generally similar. The clusters are evaluated based on the average of the financial indicators and the number of shares, and the preferable clusters are indicated
2017-2018 Exchange Rate Turbulence and New Monetary Policy Tools of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Halil Tunal?,Yusuf Yal??nkaya
- , 2019,
Abstract: A significant impact of unconventional monetary policy implemented by central banks of developed countries has been on diversity and depth of foreign exchange swap markets. In this study, the methods of implementation of the CBRT’s new monetary policy instruments -foreign exchange deposits against Turkish Lira deposits (swap transactions) and Turkish Lira-settled forward foreign exchange sale transactions- are explained. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of swap action as a new monetary policy instrument of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on TRY, CBRT policy rate, and cross-currency basis swap of US Dollar/Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) in the London market. The relationship between basis swap of the USD/TRY in the London market, the CBRT policy rate, the CBRT overnight borrowing interest rate, and USD/TRY was analyzed by Granger causality test. Our analysis reveals that there is a bilateral causality between basis swap of TRY in the London market and the USD/TRY, between the USD/TRY and the CBRT policy rate, between the CBRT policy rate and the CBRT overnight borrowing interest rate, and between the CBRT overnight borrowing interest rate and the USD/TRY. In addition, a change in basis swap of USD in the London market is a cause of the CBRT policy rate and in USD/TRY. Lastly, a change in basis swap of TRY in the London market is a cause of the CBRT policy rate
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