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The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits
Pasten,Roberto; Cover,James P;
Cuadernos de economía , 2010, DOI: 10.4067/S0717-68212010000200002
Abstract: this paper uses an inter temporal model of public finances to show that political instability can cause taxes to be tilted to the future, resulting in a fiscal deficit that is suboptimal and only weakly sustainable (in the sense of quintos). this occurs because political instability gives the government an incentive to implement a myopic fiscal policy in order to increase its chances of remaining in office. the government achieves this by delaying taxes (or advancing spending) in order to buy political support, which in turn causes an upward trend in the deficit process and a financial crisis. using annual data for chile for the 1833-1999 periods, we present statistical test results that support the model.
The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits La Economía Política de los déficits fiscales insostenibles
Roberto Pasten,James P Cover
Cuadernos de Economía , 2010,
Abstract: This paper uses an inter temporal model of public finances to show that political instability can cause taxes to be tilted to the future, resulting in a fiscal deficit that is suboptimal and only weakly sustainable (in the sense of Quintos). This occurs because political instability gives the government an incentive to implement a myopic fiscal policy in order to increase its chances of remaining in office. The government achieves this by delaying taxes (or advancing spending) in order to buy political support, which in turn causes an upward trend in the deficit process and a financial crisis. Using annual data for Chile for the 1833-1999 periods, we present statistical test results that support the model. Este paper usa un modelo inter temporal de las finanzas públicas que muestra que la inestabilidad política puede causar que los impuestos sean desplazados hacia el futuro, resultando en un déficit fiscal que es sub-óptimo y solo débilmente sostenible (en el sentido de Quintos). Esto ocurre debido a que la inestabilidad política otorga al gobierno un incentivo para implementar una política fiscal sesgada de tal forma de incrementar su chance de mantenerse en el poder. El gobierno consigue esto retardando los impuestos (o avanzando los gastos) de tal forma de adquirir respaldo político, el cual a su vez causa una tendencia positiva en el proceso de déficit fiscal aumentando con ello la probabilidad de una crisis fiscal. Usando datos para Chile para el periodo 1833-1999, se presentan los resultados de pruebas estadísticas que respaldan el modelo.
Bayesian Markov Regime-Switching Models for Cointegration  [PDF]
Kai Cui, Wenshan Cui
Applied Mathematics (AM) , 2012, DOI: 10.4236/am.2012.312259
Abstract: This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeling cointegration, the Bayesian Markov switching method allows for estimation of the regime-specific model parameters via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and generates more reliable estimation. Inference of regime switching also provides important information for further analysis and decision making.
Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Output in Nigeria  [PDF]
Dominic Z. Agba, Sunday O. Adewara, Joseph I. Adama, Kelvins T. Adzer, Gabriel O. Atoyebi
American Journal of Climate Change (AJCC) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2017.63028
Abstract: This study investigates the effects of climate change factors and non-climate change factors on crop output in Nigeria. Empirical research approach was adopted with the use of secondary sources of time series annual data obtained from reputable sources for the period 1980-2013. Error Correction Mechanism was used for the analysis. It was found that in the short run, only rainfall tested significantly positive to crop output among the climate change factors but there is evidence of significant effects of all climate change factors on crop output in the long-run. For example, temperature, carbon dioxide emission, carbon emission and rainfall were tested significantly to crop output. Furthermore, non-climate change factors like economically active population, gross capital formation, and land area equipped for irrigation were significantly positive to crop output. To forestall the effects of climate change on crop output, the study recommends that policy makers should formulate policies that will aid farmers towards adaptation practices in farming that can mitigate the effects of climate change. Furthermore, governments and other relevant agencies should also design programmes that can motivate the masses to increase their involvement in crop production.
Influence of Chicken Manure Amendment on the Thermal Properties of Selected Benchmark Soils in Zambia  [PDF]
Mary Mwale Chishala, Elijah Phiri, Lydia M. Chabala
Open Journal of Soil Science (OJSS) , 2019, DOI: 10.4236/ojss.2019.92002
Abstract: Influence of Chicken Manure amendment on the thermal properties of selected Benchmark soils in Zambia was investigated in the laboratory under soil column experiments. Five benchmark soils were exerted to four chicken manure amendment rates of 0% (control), 2%, 4% and 6% on a weight basis. Soil temperature profiles were monitored in soil columns exerted to artificial heat source and generated data was used to compute the thermal properties of the soils. The effect of manure application on the soil thermal properties was strongly related to soil type and application rate. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in volumetric heat capacity, thermal diffusivity and damping depth among the benchmark soils. The volumetric heat capacity varied from 3.87 MJ·m？3·c？1 (Mushemi series) to 8.62 MJ·m？3·c？1 (Makeni series) and attributed to differences in soil characteristics. Thermal diffusivity varied from 0.028 m2·s？1 (Makeni series) to 0.069 m2·s？1 (Mushemi series) a reverse trend to thermal conductivity. A similar trend was observed with damping depth however thermal conductivity was not significantly different among the benchmark soils. The studied soils showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in their thermal properties with chicken manure amendment. Thermal conductivity (λ), thermal diffusivity (Dh) and damping depth (d) decreased while volumetric heat capacity (Cv) increased with increased chicken manure addition. The differences in these thermal properties were attributed to differences in soil properties. These results suggest that chicken manure application can be an important intervention in regulation of the thermal properties of the soil and consequently the thermal regime of the soil.
Water-Regime Effects on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plant-Less, Silt-Loam Mesocosms in the Greenhouse  [PDF]
Cassandra Seuferling, Diego Della Lunga, Jonathan Brye, Thomas Dockery, Kristofor Brye, Lisa Wood
Open Journal of Applied Sciences (OJAppS) , 2025, DOI: 10.4236/ojapps.2025.158165
Abstract: Evaluation and understanding of processes affecting atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from the soil surface are critical to mitigating global climate change, particularly from the agricultural sector and the impact of soil-water regimes. The objectives of this study were to assess GHG [i.e., carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)] emissions, evaluate soil oxidation-reduction (redox) potential (Eh), and track water-soluble (WS) nutrient changes under differing water regimes [i.e., flooded (FL), intermittent wet and dry (IWD), seasonally flooded (SFL)] in silt-loam-textured mesocosms in the greenhouse. Soil Eh was measured hourly via redox sensor, GHG concentrations were collected weekly using vented, closed-chamber sampling with gas chromatography analysis, and soil samples were collected five times during the study period from January to April 2025. Greater fluctuations of GHGs and Eh were observed in IWD and SFL mesocosms. Carbon dioxide was the only gas with statistical differences among GHG emissions and was greatest (P < 0.05) from IWD (3.99 Mg？ha？1) and the lowest from FL (0.30 Mg？ha？1) mesocosms. Water soluble phosphorus was the greatest (4.1 mg？kg？1) from IWD, and the lowest from SFL (3.5 mg？kg？1) and FL (3.2 mg？kg？1). Water soluble magnesium and redox-active elements (i.e., manganese, iron, sulfur) differed (P < 0.05) between water regime and time. Results determined water management practices can impact biogeochemical processes in multiple ways. The investigation of soil resource properties under various water regimes could better inform future management practices to improve nutrient and water efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and enhance soil health.
Classification of Normal and Abnormal Regimes in Financial Markets
Edward P. K. Tsang,Jun Chen
Algorithms | An Open Access Journal from MDPI , 2018, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/a11120202
Abstract: Abstract When financial market conditions change, traders adopt different strategies. The traders’ collective behaviour may cause significant changes in the statistical properties of price movements. When this happens, the market is said to have gone through “regime changes”. The purpose of this paper is to characterise what is a “normal market regime” as well as what is an “abnormal market regime”, under observations in Directional Changes (DC). Our study starts with historical data from 10 financial markets. For each market, we focus on a period of time in which significant events could have triggered regime changes. The observations of regime changes in these markets are then positioned in a designed two-dimensional indicator space based on DC. Our results suggest that the normal regimes from different markets share similar statistical characteristics. In other words, with our observations, it is possible to distinguish normal regimes from abnormal regimes. This is significant, because, for the first time, we can tell whether a market is in a normal regime by observing the DC indicators in the market. This opens the door for future work to be able to dynamically monitor the market for regime change. View Full-Tex
El cambio en el régimen de políticas a través de la crisis. Análisis del desempe？o gubernamental frente a las crisis en Argentina, Espa？a y México
Montero Bagatella, Juan Carlos;
CONfines de relaciones internacionales y ciencia política , 2011,
Abstract: crises are unexpected events that trigger and enable change in the policy regime. to analyze how the policy paradigm changes, this paper analyzes three different crises: argentina in 2000-2003, spain in 2008-2011, and mexico in 1994-1996. the question of the article is: how does crisis trigger change in the policy regime? to answer, is shown that crisis destroy the preexisting government's coalitions, enable the formation of new coalitions that face the crisis that are also substituted after the crisis for a new coalition to institutionalize the new policy paradigm.
Ciclos de mobiliza？？o política e mudan？a institucional no Brasil
Rodrigues, Alberto Tosi;
Revista de Sociologia e Política , 2001, DOI: 10.1590/S0104-44782001000200004
Abstract: this article focuses on the interaction between the political mobilization and demobilization of society, on the one hand, and the process of change in political institutionality, on the other. my basic hypothesis is that mobilization cycles and cycles of institutional reform interact, feeding into each other. i suggest that there are two distinct mobilization cycles: one of entrance and one of exit from the military regime that was installed in 1964. each cycle involves corresponding cycles of institutional reform, leading in different directions.
Syndromes of Production in Agriculture: Prospects for Social-Ecological Regime Change
John H. Vandermeer,Ivette Perfecto
Ecology and Society , 2012, DOI: 10.5751/es-04813-170439
Abstract: Agricultural syndromes of production can be recognized in both historical and contemporary times. Recent literature in ecology focuses on alternative ecological states and the tipping points that may separate them, suggesting a point of view that "regime" changes will happen at those points. In agricultural ecosystems the idea of a regime is equivalent to a syndrome of production and there is no reason not to expect that regime switches will occur when tipping points are reached. Using very minimal qualitative models of economic and ecological forces, it is shown that the basic structure of regime change expected in natural ecosystems might be also expected in agroecosystems. In particular structures of nonlinearity suggest alternative syndromes and the potential for catastrophic shifts resulting from small changes in driving conditions. Furthermore, relaxing the assumption of monotonicity reveals the potential for such catastrophic shifts resulting from stochastic forces or chaotic dynamics, even in the absence of changes in driving conditions.
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