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Case Study: A Simulation Model of the Spawning Stock Biomass of Pacific Bluefin Tuna and Evaluation of Fisheries Regulations  [PDF]
Kazumi Sakuramoto
American Journal of Climate Change (AJCC) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2016.52021
Abstract: This study proposes a simulation model that well reproduces the spawning stock biomass of Pacific bluefin tuna. Environmental factors were chosen to estimate the recruitment per spawning stock biomass, and a simulation model that well reproduced the spawning stock biomass was developed. Then, effects of various fisheries regulations were evaluated using the simulation study. The results were as follows: 1) arctic oscillations, Pacific decadal oscillations and the recruitment number of the Pacific stock of Japanese sardine were chosen as the environmental factors that determined the recruitment per spawning stock biomass; 2) spawning stock biomass could be well reproduced using a model that reproduced the recruitment per spawning stock biomass and the survival process of the population that included the effect of fishing; and 3) the effects of various fisheries regulation could be evaluated using the simulation model mentioned above. The effective regulation in the simulations conducted in this paper was a prohibition of fishing for 0- and 1-year-old fish in terms of recovering the spawning stock biomass. The reduction of fishing mortality coefficients for all age fish to 50% of actual values also showed a good performance. The recent reductions of the recruitment and spawning stock biomass were likely caused by heavy harvesting, especially of immature fish, since 2004.
过去千年浙江极端旱涝事件与太平洋年代际振荡
Extreme Drought and Flood Events in Zhejiang over the Past Millennium and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)  [PDF]
韩健夫
Climate Change Research Letters (CCRL) , 2026, DOI: 10.12677/ccrl.2026.152050
Abstract: 以历史文献作为代用资料，采用均一法重建过去千年浙江极端旱涝事件序列，在此基础上探讨过去千年浙江极端旱涝灾害与海–气活动间的关系。结论如下：在过去千年中，极端干旱事件在12世纪上半叶发生概率最高；极端洪涝事件在16世纪上半叶最为频繁。极端干旱事件在过去千年江南地区偏干时期发生概率上升。暖期时季风越强，极端旱涝出现的概率越高。小冰期时段，极端旱涝事件出现概率整体偏低。在PDO极端暖位相且是ENSO发展阶段时，极端洪涝事件发生概率显著上升，这可能与PDO对东亚夏季风和El Nino事件的作用有关。
Using historical documents as substitute data, the homogenization method is used to reconstruct extreme drought/flood events of Zhejiang Province over the past millennium. On this basis, the relationship between extreme drought/flood events and ocean-atmosphere activities is explored. The result shows that the probability of extreme drought events is highest in the first half of the 12th century, and the probability of extreme flood events is highest in the first half of the 16th century. The results indicate that probability of extreme drought events will rise in dry period of Jiangnan area. What’s more, the Summer monsoon of East Asia is stronger, and the probability of extreme drought/flood events is higher in the Medieval Warm Period and Modern warm period. The probability of extreme drought/flood events are low in the Little Ice Age. The probability of extreme flood events will exist ascension in extreme warm phase of PDO and ENSO developing years, and this may be because the PDO can affect East Asian summer monsoon and El Nino events.
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of March-April-May Precipitation in Tanzania and Its Relationship with SST  [PDF]
Mnana Twaha, Daniel Semgomba, Daudi Ndabagenga, Mustafa Mwinjuma
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection (GEP) , 2025, DOI: 10.4236/gep.2025.1312008
Abstract: This study examines the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of March-April-May (MAM) rainfall over Tanzania and its relationship with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies using data from 1981-2024. Results reveal a strong north-south rainfall gradient, with enhanced precipitation over the northern, coastal, and Lake Victoria regions, influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Indian Ocean moisture transport, and local topography. Trend analysis indicates an overall increasing pattern of MAM rainfall, particularly in the southern highlands, central plateau, and coastal areas, while localized declines appear in the Lake Victoria Basin. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis identifies three dominant modes explaining about 61% of the total rainfall variance, representing widespread, dipole, and zonal variability patterns. Composite circulation analysis shows that wet MAM years are associated with strong low-level moisture convergence, upper-level divergence, and enhanced vertical motion, while dry years display subsidence and reduced moisture inflow. Additionally, global SST anomalies—notably from the Central Pacific ENSO, Western Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Northern Pacific variability—exert significant teleconnection influences on Tanzania’s MAM rainfall. Overall, the findings highlight that Tanzania’s MAM rainfall variability is strongly modulated by SST anomalies and atmospheric circulation systems, providing a scientific foundation for seasonal forecasting, water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation strategies.
Interannual Time-Scale Relationship between Mongolia High and SST Anomaly in the North Pacific in Winter
冬季蒙古高压与北太平洋海温异常的年际尺度关系
Li Chongyin,Wang Liqun,Gu Wei,
李崇银,王力群,顾薇
大气科学 , 2011,
Abstract: The difference of sea level pressure(SLP) between the Mongolia high and the North Pacific has been regarded as an important reason to cause East Asian winter monsoon and its variation,but most of the interrelated studies are associated with interdecadal time scale.This study will reveal the relationship on interannual time scale between the Mongolia high and the sea surface temperature(SST) in the North Pacific in winter.The data analyses show that negative correlation between the Mongolia high and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) is still evident on interannual time scale,and strong(weak) Mongolia high in winter is corresponding to negative(positive) phase of the PDO;interdecadal variation exists in this interannual negative correlation,and it generally appears in the period that the interdecadal correlation is not distinct.The data analyses also show that there is a high correlation belt between the winter Mongolia high index and the SST in the North Pacific from the northeastern Pacific to the tropical western Pacific,and both of its location and pattern are similar to the Interdecadal Pathway(IP) in the previous research.This correlation obviously exists in the period from the preceding spring to the corresponding winter,which demonstrates a fixed feature of the air-sea interaction in the Asia / North Pacific area,and it can be called air-sea interaction bridge(SAIB) in the middle latitudes of the North Pacific.It is also shown that the distribution of correlation coefficient expressing the SAIB varies with the season,which means that the interannual correlation of the air-sea interaction has seasonal variation characteristics.Since the SSTA mode is relatively stationary,the PDO and SST anomaly in the SAIB region could be the factor to predict the Mongolia high activity in winter(East Asian winter monsoon).Particularly in the earlier stage(especially in summer),positive SST anomaly in the SAIB region could have the indicative sense for the enhancement of Mongolia high(East-Asian monsoon) activity in winter.
An Analysis of the Spring-to-Summer Transition in the West Central Plains for Application to Long Range Forecasting  [PDF]
Rosalie G. Newberry, Anthony R. Lupo, Andrew D. Jensen, R. Antonio Rodriges Zalipynis
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (ACS) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/acs.2016.63031
Abstract: The spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting, as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the 500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also found that the onset of La Ni?a was associated with hotter summers in the region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association was much stronger here.
Main Decadal Abrupt Changes and Decadal Modes in Global Sea Surface Temperature Field
全球海表温度场中主要的年代际突变及其模态
XIAO Dong,LI Jian-Ping,
肖栋,李建平
大气科学 , 2007,
Abstract: A moving t-test technique(MTT) is developed for quantitatively detecting the decadal abrupt changes(DACs) in the annual mean time series of Global Sea Surface Temperature(GSST) field for 139 years(1867-2005).The data used in this paper are Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature(ERSST) from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA).A correction to the effective degrees of freedom of t-test is adopted for the dependency of time series of SST to be examined.This study focuses on abrupt change of mean value at decadal timescales.The spatial distribution of the DACs of GSST are shown in several epochs as follows: 1894-1901,1905-1909,1920-1930,1939-1945,1954-1958,1973-1979 and 1994-1998.The DACs of the Pacific Ocean took on PDO-like modes through all the epochs.The authors confirmed the decadal abrupt change years(DACYs) of GSST with the time coefficient of the second mode of GSST field.Our results show that the well-known 1924,1942 and 1976 DACs of GSST are not unique,also found around 1894,1907,1956 and the recent 1997 DACs.The equatorial Pacific Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be the most sensitive area to the DACs of GSST.The next ones are the North Pacific Ocean,the South Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean.The third one is the South Atlantic Ocean.Decadal modes(DMs) in the GSST field are got from epoch differences of the averaged field between the episodes 1895-1906 and 1893-1880,1908-1923 and 1895-1906,1925-1941 and 1908-1923,1943-1955 and 1925-1941,1957-1975 and 1943-1955,1977-1996 and 1957-1975,1998-2005 and 1977-1996.They take on Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) modes in the Pacific at all the epochs with only differences in intension and position.The meridional structure of the DMs in the Atlantic Ocean is dissymmetrical,warm trend is dominant.The opposite phases of DMs in GSST field occurred between DMs 1895-1906 minus 1880-1893 and 1908-1923 minus 1895-1906,1925-1941 minus 1908-1923 and 1943-1955 minus 1925-1941,1977-1996 minus 1957-1975 and 19982005 minus 1977-1996 in most areas.The PDO index(November-March) computed with the NOAA ERSST is detected by MTT.The DACYs of the PDO are 1908,1924,1942, 1956,1976 and 1997.The DACYs 1908,1956 and 1997 are first found.They are the same as the DACYs of the GSST in essence except 1894.It indicates that the PDO takes an important part in DACs of GSST.If the 1997 DACY exists,the epoch 1998 up to the present is a new decadal background in the GSST field.The present intension of the DM in GSST field is stronger than that in the epoch 1943-1955; and the PDO,might be similar to that in the epochs 1909-1923 and 1957-1975.
Relationship between Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal timescale
Jianqi Sun,Huijun Wang
Chinese Science Bulletin , 2006, DOI: 10.1007/s11434-004-0221-3
Abstract: The relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on decadal timescale in the extended winter (November–March) is investigated in this study. The results indicate that AO plays an important role in the low frequency variability of PDO. When AO leads PDO by 7–8 years, the lagging correlation between them becomes the strongest with correlation coefficient 0.77. The leading decadal variability of AO pro-vides a valuably precursory signal for predicting the variability of PDO. The results of regression and lagging correlation reveal the possible mechanism for the AO-PDO coupling: A strong AO would lead to an enhanced Aleutian Low that is linked to PDO by ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Pacific, and vice versa.
Possible Origins of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Decadal Variability
GAN Bolan,WU Lixin,
大气科学进展 , 2012,
Abstract: In this study, the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) were investigated. Our results show that the WPWP is linked with the PDO and the AMO at multiple time scales. On the seasonal time scales, the WPWP and the PDO/AMO reinforce each other, while at decadal time scales the forcing roles of the PDO and the AMO dominate. Notably, a positive PDO tends to enlarge the WPWP at both seasonal and decadal time scales, while a positive AMO tends to reduce the WPWP at decadal time scales. Furthermore, the decadal variability of the WPWP can be well predicted based on the PDO and AMO.
Impact of Climatic Factors on Albacore Tuna Thunnus alalunga in the South Pacific Ocean  [PDF]
Ashneel Ajay Singh, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Naoki Suzuki
American Journal of Climate Change (AJCC) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2015.44024
Abstract: Over the years there has been growing interest regarding the effects of climatic variations on marine biodiversity. The exclusive economic zones of South Pacific Islands and territories are home to major international exploitable stocks of albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga); however the impact of climatic variations on these stocks is not fully understood. This study was aimed at determining the climatic variables which have impact on the time series stock fluctuation pattern of albacore tuna stock in the Eastern and Western South Pacific Ocean which was divided into three zones. The relationship of the climatic variables for the global mean land and ocean temperature index (LOTI), the Pacific warm pool index (PWI) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) was investigated against the albacore tuna catch per unit effort (CPUE) time series in Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3 of the South Pacific Ocean from 1957 to 2008. From the results it was observed that LOTI, PWI and PDO at different lag periods exhibited significant correlation with albacore tuna CPUE for all three areas. LOTI, PWI and PDO were used as independent variables to develop suitable stock reproduction models for the trajectory of albacore tuna CPUE in Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3. Model selection was based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), R2 values and significant parameter estimates at p < 0.05. The final models for albacore tuna CPUE in all three zones incorporated all three independent variables of LOTI, PWI and PDO. From the findings it can be said that the climatic conditions of LOTI, PWI and PDO play significant roles in structuring the stock dynamics of the albacore tuna in the Eastern and Western South Pacific Ocean. It is imperative to take these factors into account when making management decisions for albacore tuna in these areas.
The interannual variability of midwestern temperatures and precipitation as related to the ENSO and PDO
BIRK, K.;LUPO, A. R.;GUINAN, P.;BARBIERI, C. E.;
Atmósfera , 2010,
Abstract: long-term temperature and precipitation records in the midwest are examined in order to determine if interdecadal variability associated with the pacific decadal oscillation (pdo) acts to modulate the el ni？o southern oscillation (enso) related interannual variability of midwestern climates. power spectrum analysis demonstrates that significant enso related variability between 3 and 7 years as well as significant interdecadal variability between 12-15 years and at approximately 21 year time periods exist within these time series. this interdecadal variability is suggested to represent the time periods in which the pdo acts to modulate the enso-related variability of midwestern climates. in addition, it was determined in this study that the enso-related variability of midwestern climates was very high during the +pdo periods (e.g., 1925-1946 and 1977-1999) and was much lower during the -pdo (e.g., 1900-1924, 1947-1976, and 2000 to present) periods. these results suggest that the enso-related impacts on midwestern climates change on interdecadal time scales. further, the seasonal climates experienced during a particular enso event may not necessarily mimic those of another similar enso event in the future. thus, from an operational point of view, in order to obtain more skillful seasonal long-term forecasts, the interdecadal variability should be considered as being superimposed upon the interannual variations.
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