This paper presents a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental assessment of decentralized photovoltaic (PV) injection into a conventional medium/low voltage (15 kV/0.4 kV) distribution network dominated by thermal generation. The study integrates deterministic and probabilistic approaches over a 25-year planning horizon. A mathematical framework incorporating PV degradation, generator failure rates, fuel cost variability, and policy-related uncertainties is developed. Economic performance is evaluated using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), while environmental performance is assessed through CO2 emission reduction. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that decentralized PV injection remains economically viable in more than 95% of simulated uncertainty scenarios. The results confirm the structural vulnerability of thermal generation and highlight the strategic role of decentralized PV systems in improving sustainability and economic resilience in developing power systems.
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