数字贸易产业发展水平对出口韧性的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析
Research on the Impact of Digital Trade Industry Development Level on Export Resilience—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

在国际环境复杂多变的情况下，国家发展数字贸易对提升出口韧性、实现对外贸易逆势突围具有重要意义。本文以2008年金融危机导致的出口冲击为背景，基于2011~2021年中国统计年鉴、中国第三产业统计年鉴、各省份、各城市统计年鉴，利用主成分分析法构建数字贸易产业发展水平指标，实证检验了各省份数字贸易产业发展与出口韧性的相关关系。研究表明，数字贸易产业发展能够显著提升出口韧性，且通过一系列稳健性检验。机制检验发现，数字贸易产业发展水平主要通过增强政府引导提升出口韧性。异质性检验揭示，发展数字贸易产业对中部地区省份和非直辖市省份的出口韧性提升效果更强。进一步检验发现，人力资本水平会加强发展数字贸易产业对出口韧性的提升作用，而高税负水平会削弱数字贸易产业发展水平对出口韧性的提升作用。本文的研究从数字贸易产业视角为提高中国出口韧性提供了理论依据和政策启示。
In the context of a complex and volatile international environment, the development of digital trade by a country is of great significance for enhancing the resilience of exports and achieving a breakthrough in foreign trade against the odds. This paper takes the export shock caused by the 2008 financial crisis as the background, and based on the China Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2021, the China Tertiary Industry Statistical Yearbook, and the statistical yearbooks of various provinces and cities, uses the principal component analysis method to construct the index of the development level of the digital trade industry, and empirically examines the correlation between the development of the digital trade industry in each province and export resilience. Research shows that the development of the digital trade industry can significantly enhance the resilience of exports and pass a series of robustness tests. Mechanism tests have found that the development level of the digital trade industry mainly enhances the resilience of exports by strengthening government guidance. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the development of the digital trade industry has a stronger effect on enhancing the export resilience of provinces in the central region and non-municipalities. Further examination reveals that the level of human capital will enhance the role of developing the digital trade industry in improving export resilience, while a high tax burden level will weaken the role of the development level of the digital trade industry in enhancing export resilience. The research in this article provides a theoretical basis and policy implications for enhancing the resilience of China’s exports from the perspective of the digital trade industry.