环渤海城市人居环境韧性水平演化特征
Evolution Characteristics of Human Settlements Resilience Level in the Bohai Rim Region

在全球城市化与气候变化背景下，提升城市人居环境韧性是推进中国式现代化建设的重大需求。环渤海地区作为国家重大战略区域，其人居环境韧性研究对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文旨在探究环渤海城市群人居环境韧性的时空演化特征，以揭示其发展规律与存在问题。基于人居环境科学与韧性理论，构建包含自然、人、社会、居住和支撑网络五大维度的评价指标体系，运用箱型图与GIS空间热点分析方法，对2015~2024年环渤海17个地级及以上城市的韧性水平进行测度与分析。研究表明：1) 时序上，区域韧性水平整体显著提升，但城市间绝对差异持续扩大，呈现“扩张型”发展态势；2) 空间上，韧性水平呈现显著的正向空间相关性，格局由初期分散状态演进为以天津、青岛为双热点的“核心–外围”梯度集聚结构，辐射带动效应初步显现，但北部沿海地区发展相对滞后。环渤海城市人居环境韧性建设成效显著，但内部非均衡性问题突出。未来应强化核心城市的辐射带动作用，并实施差异化策略促进区域协同发展，研究可为高强度开发地区人居环境韧性优化与国土空间规划提供科学参考。
Against the backdrop of global urbanization and climate change, enhancing the resilience of urban human settlements has become a crucial imperative for promoting Chinese-style modernization. As a region of major national strategic importance, studying the resilience of human settlements in the Bohai Rim is highly significant for sustainable regional development. This paper aims to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of human settlement resilience in the Bohai Rim urban agglomeration, with the goal of revealing its developmental patterns and existing issues. Based on the theories of human settlement science and resilience, an evaluation index system was constructed encompassing five dimensions: nature, human, society, residence, and supporting networks. Using box plots and GIS spatial hotspot analysis methods, the resilience levels of 17 prefecture-level and above cities in the Bohai Rim from 2015 to 2024 were measured and analyzed. The research indicates that: 1) Temporally, the overall resilience level of the region has improved significantly, but the absolute disparities among cities continue to widen, showing an “expansive development trend”; 2) Spatially, the resilience level demonstrates significant positive spatial correlation, evolving from an initially dispersed pattern to a “core-periphery” gradient agglomeration structure with Tianjin and Qingdao as dual hotspots. While a preliminary radiation-driven effect has emerged, development in the northern coastal areas remains relatively lagging. Although the construction of human settlement resilience in the Bohai Rim cities has achieved notable results, internal imbalance issues remain prominent. Future efforts should focus on strengthening the radiating and driving role of core cities and implementing differentiated strategies to promote regional coordinated development. This study can provide scientific reference for optimizing human settlement