The situation in Karelia, a region in Northwest Russia, is analyzed in the context of forest energy. The annual potential energy available from wood harvesting is about 7 tera watt hours (TWh) (3.6 million m 3), which is equal to the total need of Karelia in energy for municipal heating. We point out that the contribution to the municipal economy, the moderate heating cost, the enhanced energy security in the cold Russian climate, the environmental friendliness, the better access to the forests and the utilization of the proven Nordic forest energy solutions (NFES) might have important consequences for strategy-making processes in forest energy development. For this purpose, connecting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with SWOT (internal strengths (S) or weaknesses (W) and external opportunities (O) or threats (T)) analysis is proposed to identify local operational strategies and assign priorities. Major threats include lack of government support, an insufficient road network, the dominance of extensive forest management, gasification and financial indiscipline. Analysis indicates that NFES are viewed positively for the Russian conditions. The forest biomass market has virtually unlimited opportunities for growth. Together, with the transition to intensive forest management, favorable policy in terms of forestry development programs can support bioenergy development. The advantageous location of existing power plants next to forests, increasing fossil fuel prices, the improvement of the road network and the availability of new technology are seen as potential opportunities for NFES. However, the results also indicate that there is substantial uncertainty and skepticism concerning how such markets benefit forest leaseholders who would like to adopt forest energy. The lack of bioenergy technology development, high transportation cost, low awareness of NFES, high demands for roads, the requirement for skilled specialists and wood fuel quality are the main weaknesses regarding the transfer of NFES to Karelia.
References
[1]
IEA. Renewables in Global Energy Supply: An IEA Fact Sheet; International Energy Agency: Paris, France, 2007.
[2]
International Energy Agency. Available online: http://www.iea.org/stats (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[3]
UNECE. Available online: http://www.unece.org/index.php?id=32790 (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[4]
Minselhoz. The Strategy for the Forest Sector of the Russian Federation until 2020. (in Russian); Federal Ministry of Agriculture: Moscow, Russia, 2008.
[5]
Rosleshoz. The Volume of Timber Harvested in 2009–2011. (in Russian); Federal Forestry Agency: Moscow, Russia, 2012.
[6]
Gerasimov, Y.; Karjalainen, T. Energy wood resources in Northwest Russia. Biomass Bioenerg. 2011, 35, 1655–1662, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.12.039.
[7]
Government of Karelia. The Regional Development Strategy of the Republic of Karelia Fuel Industry Based on Local Energy Resources for 2011–2020. (in Russian); Government of the Republic of Karelia: Petrozavodsk, Russia, 2009.
[8]
Rakitova, O. Production of forest chips in Russia. Int. Bioenerg. 2012, 1, 19. (in Russian).
[9]
Kareliastat. Forest Sector of the Republic of Karelia (2002–2006). (in Russian); Federal State Statistics Service: Petrozavodsk, Russia, 2007.
[10]
Pristupa, A.; Mol, A.; Oosterveer, P. Stagnating liquid biofuel developments in Russia: Present status and future perspectives. Energy Policy 2010, 38, 3320–3328, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.003.
[11]
Tahvanainen, T.; Anttila, P. Supply chain cost analysis of long-distance transportation of energy wood in Finland. Biomass Bioenerg. 2011, 35, 3360–3375, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.11.014.
[12]
Gerasimov, Y.; Sunev, V.; Sokolov, A.; Seliverstov, A.; Katarov, V.; Suhanov, Y.; Rozhin, D.; Tyurlik, I.; Firsov, M. The rational use of wood and forest residues for bioenergy: Assessment of potentials and technological approaches. Sci. J. Kuban State Agric. Univ. 2011, 9, 576–587. (in Russian).
[13]
Gerasimov, Y.; Seliverstov, A.; Suhanov, Y.; Sunev, V. Key factors of planning the production of wood fuel from woody biomass. Proc. Petrozavodsk State Univ. Nat. Eng. Sci. 2011, 8, 77–80. (in Russian).
[14]
Halder, P.; Pietarinen, J.; Havu-Nuutinen, S.; Pelkonen, P. Young citizens’ knowledge and perceptions of bioenergy and future policy implications. Energy Policy 2010, 38, 3058–3066.
[15]
Karjalainen, T.; Leinonen, T.; Gerasimov, Y.; Husso, M.; Karvinen, S. Intensification of Forest Management and Improvement of Wood Harvesting in Northwest Russia—Final Report of the Research Project. Working Paper Finnish Forest Research Institute 110; Metla: Helsinki, Finland, 2009.
[16]
Siry, P. Intensive Timber Management Practices. In Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53; Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G., Eds.; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station: Asheville, NC, USA, 2002; pp. 327–340.
[17]
Forest Code of the Russian Federation. Available online: http://www.faolex.fao.org (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[18]
Morkovkina, S.S.; Sibiryatkina, I.V. Development of the forest sector on the bases of state–private partnership. Soc. Econ. Phenom. Process. 2011, 10, 145–148. (in Russian).
[19]
Ministry of Nature and Ecology of the Republic of Karelia(in Russian). Available online: http://www.gov.karelia.ru/gov/News/2012/09/0924_02.html (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[20]
Lipsky, V. Investments and Risks in Bioenergy in Russia(in Russian). Available online: http://www.infobio.ru/sites/default/files/Lipsky.pdf (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[21]
Ishmuratov, V.; Komarov, A. Bioenergy engineering in Russia: Contemporary state, problems, and perspectives. Probl. Mod. Econ. 2011, 1, 301–302. (in Russian).
[22]
Ugarte, D. Developing bioenergy: Economic and social issues. Int. Food Policy Res. Inst. 2006, 14, 5–6.
[23]
Brown, K. Bioenergy in Ireland; Sustainable Energy Ireland: Dublin, Ireland, 2004.
[24]
Domac, J.; Madlener, R.; Richards, K. Socio-Economic Aspects of Bioenergy Systems–New International Research Cooperation within IEA Bioenergy. In Proceedings of the 1st World Conference on Biomass for Energy and Industry, Sevilla, Spain, 5–9 June 2000.
[25]
Official site of Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. Available online: http://www.gks.ru (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[26]
Kholodkov, V. Perspectives of Wood Fuel Using in Energy Sector of Russia(in Russian). Available online: http://www.infobio.ru/analytics/1161.html (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[27]
Joelsson, J.; Gustavsson, L. Reduction of CO2 emission and oil dependency with biomass-based polygeneration. Biomass Bioenerg. 2010, 34, 967–984, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.02.005.
[28]
Bj？rheden, R. Drivers behind the development of forest energy in Sweden. Biomass Bioenerg. 2006, 30, 289–295, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2005.07.005.
[29]
Hakkila, P. Factors driving the development of forest energy in Finland. Biomass Bioenerg. 2006, 30, 281–288, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2005.07.003.
[30]
IEA. Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives. In Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future; OECD/IEA: Paris, France, 2013.
[31]
Leraned, E.P.; Christensen, C.R.; Andrews, K.R.; Guth, W.Q. Business Policy; Irwin: Homewood, IL, USA, 1965.
[32]
Weihrich, H. The TOWS matrix-a tool for situational analysis. J. Long Range Plan. 1982, 15, 54–66, doi:10.1016/0024-6301(82)90120-0.
[33]
Rauch, P. SWOT analyses and SWOT strategy formulation for forest owner cooperations in Austria. Eur. J. For. Res. 2007, 126, 413–420, doi:10.1007/s10342-006-0162-2.
[34]
Suh, J.; Emtage, N. Identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the community-based forest management program. Ann. Trop. Res. 2005, 27, 55–66.
[35]
Oswald, K.; Riechsteiner, D.; Thees, O.; Lemm, R. Reorganisation of wood production for improved performance: A Swiss forest district case study. Small-Scale For. Econ. Manag. Policy 2004, 3, 143–160.
[36]
Gerasimov, Y.; Karjalainen, T. Development program for improving wood procurement in Northwest Russia based on SWOT analysis. Balt. For. 2008, 14, 85–90.
[37]
Malovrh, ？.P.; Gro？elj, P.; Stirn, L.Z.; Kr？, J. The present state and prospects of Slovenian private forest owners’ cooperation within machinery rings. Croat. J. For. Eng. 2012, 33, 105–114.
[38]
Erol, S.Y.; Topcu, I. An integrated decision aid for identifying and prioritizing strategies in forest management. Environ. Eng. Manag. J. 2011, 10, 683–695.
[39]
Stainback, G.A.; Masozera, M.; Mukuralinda, A.; Dwivedi, P. Smallholder agroforestry in Rwanda: a SWOT-AHP analysis. Small-Scale For. 2012, 11, 285–300, doi:10.1007/s11842-011-9184-9.
[40]
Saaty, T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process; McGraw Hill: New York, NY, USA, 1980.
[41]
Kurttila, M.; Pesonen, M.; Kangas, J.; Kajanus, M. Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis—A hybrid method and its application to a forest certification case. For. Policy Econ. 2000, 1, 41–52, doi:10.1016/S1389-9341(99)00004-0.
[42]
Kajanus, M.; Leskinen, P.; Kurttila, M.; Kangas, J. Making use of MCDS methods in SWOT analysis—Lessons learnt in strategic natural resources management. For. Policy Econ. 2012, 20, 1–9, doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2012.03.005.
[43]
Kajanus, M.; Kangas, J.; Kurttila, M. The use of value focused thinking and the A’WOT hybrid method in tourism management. Tour. Manag. 2004, 25, 499–506, doi:10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00120-1.
[44]
Leskinen, L.A.; Leskinen, P.; Kurttila, M.; Kangas, J.; Kajanus, M. Adapting modem strategic decision support tools in the participatory strategy process—A case study of a forest research station. For. Policy Econ. 2006, 8, 267–278, doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2004.06.007.
[45]
Ghazinoory, S.; Zadeh, A.E.; Memariani, A. Fuzzy SWOT analysis. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 2007, 18, 99–108.
[46]
Hill, T.; Westbrook, R. SWOT analysis: It’s time for a product recall. Long Range Plan. 1997, 30, 46–52, doi:10.1016/S0024-6301(96)00095-7.
[47]
Masozera, M.K.; Alavalapati, J.R.R.; Jacobson, S.K.; Shrestha, R.K. Assessing the suitability of community-based management for the Nyungwe Forest Reserve, Rwanda. For. Policy. Econ. 2006, 8, 206–216, doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2004.08.001.
[48]
Abakarov, A.; Sushkov, Y. Decision-making software “MPRIORITY 1.0”. Investig. Rus. 2005, 8, 2130–2146. (in Russian).
[49]
H？m？l？inen, R.P.; Kettunen, E. HIPRE 3+ Group Link User’S Guide. Systems Analysis Laboratory Research Report; HUT: Helsinki, Finland, 1994.
[50]
Logical Decisions. Available online: http://www.logicaldecisions.com (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[51]
Kauko, T.J. Modeling the Locational Determinants of House Prices: Neural Network and Value Tree Approaches. Ph.D. Thesis, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands, 6 June 2002.
[52]
Russian Energy Agency. Bioenergy of Russia in ХХI Century. (in Russian); Russian Energy Agency: Moscow, Russia, 2012.
[53]
Okkonen, L.; Suhonen, N. Business models of heat entrepreneurship in Finland. Energy Policy 2010, 38, 3443–3452, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.018.
[54]
Enon Energia. Available online: http://www.enonenergia.fi/node/8 (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[55]
Litkevich, I. Finnish experience in the Tyumen region: boilers in districts are converting to wood chips(in Russian). Available online: http://www.vsluh.ru (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[56]
LesPromInform. Perspectives of Bioenergy Development. (in Russian); Lesprominform: Moscow, Russia, 2010.
[57]
Lippke, B.; Gustafson, R.; Venditti, R.; Volk, T.; Oneil, E.; Johnson, L.; Puettmann, M.; Steele, P. Sustainable biofuel contributions to carbon mitigation and energy independence. Forests 2011, 2, 861–874, doi:10.3390/f2040861.
[58]
Gan, J.; Smith, C.T. Availability of logging residues and potential for electricity production and carbon displacement in the USA. Biomass Bioenerg. 2009, 30, 1011–1020.
[59]
Alam, B.; Pulkki, R.E.; Shahi, C. Road network optimization model for supplying woody biomass feedstock for energy production in northwestern Ontario. Open For. Sci. J. 2012, 5, 1–14.
[60]
Government of Karelia. Development of Forestry in the Republic of Karelia 2013–2015; Government of the Republic of Karelia: Petrozavodsk, Russia, 2013.
[61]
Gautam, S.; Pulkki, R.; Shahi, C.; Leitch, M. Economic and energy efficiency of salvaging biomass from wildfire burnt areas for bioenergy production in Northwestern Ontario: A case study. Biomass Bioenerg. 2010, 34, 1562–1572, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.06.001.
[62]
Elsayed, M.; Matthews, R.; Mortimer, D. Carbon and Energy Balances for a Range of Biofuels Options; Sheffield Hallam University: Sheffield, UK, 2003.
[63]
World Energy Council. Comparison of Energy Systems Using Life Cycle Assessment; World Energy Council: London, UK, 2004.
[64]
Huff, M.; Ottmar, R.; Alvarado, E.; Vihnanek, R.; Lehmkuhl, J.; Hessburg, P.; Everett, R. Historical and Current Forest Landscapes in Eastern Oregon and Washington. Part II: Linking Vegetation Characteristics to Potential Fire Behavior and Related Smoke Production; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: Portland, OR, USA, 1995.
[65]
Government of Karelia. Forestry Plan of the Republic of Karelia 2018. (in Russian); Government of the Republic of Karelia: Petrozavodsk, Russia, 2008.
[66]
Prices of heating and transport fuels increased. Statistics Finland. Available online: http://www.stat.fi/til/ehi/2012/04/ehi_2012_04_2013–03–20_tie_001_en.html (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[67]
Chabak, E. Territory of optimism. LesPromInform 2011, 7, 22–26. (in Russian).
[68]
Levin, A.B. Bioenergy—The most important means of improving the efficiency of the Russian forest sector. For. Her. 2012, 8, 160–165. (in Russian).
[69]
Sukhanov, V.S. Role of bioenergy in efficiency improving of the forest sector. For. Her. 2010, 4, 37–42. (in Russian).
[70]
Baskov, V. Bioenergy in Russia(in Russian). Available online: http://www.mcx-consult.ru/page0215102009 (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[71]
Rohracher, H.; Sp？th, P. Improving the Public Perception of Bioenergy in Europe. Evaluation in Progress—Strategies for Environmental Research and Implementation. In Proceedings of IAPS 18 Conference, Vienna, Austria, 7–9 July 2004. [CD-Rom]. Martens, B., Keul, A.G., Eds.;
[72]
Wall, A. Risk analysis of effects of whole-tree harvesting on site productivity. For. Ecol. Manag. 2012, 282, 175–184, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.07.012.
[73]
Sukhanov, Y.; Gerasimov, Y.; Seliverstov, A.; Sokolov, A. Technological chains and machines systems for collecting and processing woody biomass into fuel chips in clear-cutting harvesting by cut-to-lengths. Syst. Methods Technol. 2011, 4, 101–107. (in Russian).
[74]
Toms, M.; Lewis, D. Whole-Tree Chips: An Additional Energy Source for Oklahoma; Oklahoma State University, Department of Forestry: Stillwater, WA, USA, 1987.
[75]
Seliverstov, A.; Sokolov, A.; Syunev, V.; Gerasimov, Y. Impact of wood harvesting systems on round wood quality. Resour. Technol. 2012, 9, 94–105. (in Russian).
[76]
Gerasimov, Y.; Seliverstov, A. Industrial round-wood losses associated with the harvesting systems in Russia. Croat. J. For. Eng. 2010, 31, 111–126.
[77]
Schroeder, R.; Jackson, B.; Ashton, S. Biomass Transportation and Delivery. In Sustainable Forestry for Bioenergy and Bio-Based Products; Hubbard, W., Biles, L., Mayfield, C., Ashton, S., Eds.; Southern Forest research Partnership, Inc.: Athens, Greece, 2007; pp. 145–148.
[78]
Sokhansanj, S.; Fenton, J. Cost Benefit of Biomass Supply and Pre-Processing; BIOCAP Canada Foundation: Kingston, Canada, 2006.
[79]
Angus-Hankina, C.; Stokes, B.; Twaddle, A. The transportation of fuel wood from forest to facility. Biomass Bioenerg. 1995, 9, 191–203, doi:10.1016/0961-9534(95)00091-7.
[80]
Goltsev, V.; Ilavsky, Y.; Gerasimov, Y.; Karjalainen, T. Potential for biofuel development in Tihvin and Boksitogorsk districts of the Leningrad region—The analysis of energy wood supply systems and costs. For. Policy Econ. 2010, 12, 308–316, doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2009.10.007.
[81]
Goltsev, V.; Ilavsky, J.; Karjalainen, T.; Gerasimov, Y. Potential of energy wood resources and technologies for their supply in Tihvin and Boksitogorsk districts of the Leningrad region. Biomass Bioenerg. 2010, 34, 1440–1448, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.04.007.
[82]
Gerasimov, Y.; Karjalainen, T. Estimation of machinery market size for industrial and energy wood harvesting in Leningrad Region. Croat. J. For. Eng. 2012, 33, 49–60.
[83]
Gerasimov, Y.; Sokolov, A.; Syunev, V. Development trends and future prospects of cut-to-length machinery. Adv. Mater. Res. 2013, 705, 468–473, doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.705.468.
[84]
Syunev, V.; Seliverstov, A.; Gerasimov, Y.; Sokolov, A. Wood Harvesting Machines in the Focus of Bioenergy: Design, Development, Calculation. (in Russian); Metla: Joensuu, Finland, 2011.
[85]
Sipil？, K.; Pursiheimo, E.; Savola, T.; Fogelholm, C.J.; Keppo, I.; Ahtila, P. Small Scale Biomass CHP Plant and District Heating. VTT Research Notes 2301; VTT: Espoo, Finland, 2005.
[86]
Laitila, J. Methodology for Choice of Harvesting System for Energy Wood from Early Thinning. Dissertationes Forestales 143; Metla: Helsinki, Finland, 2012.
[87]
Kholodkov, V. Development of a fuel-to-energy balance for regions taking into account wood fuel resources. For. Her. 2010, 4, 44–47. (in Russian).
Official site of Gazprom. Available online: http://www.gazprom.com/about/strategy/regional-policy (accessed on 26 June 2013).
[90]
Government of Karelia. General Scheme of Gasification of the Republic of Karelia. (in Russian); Government of the Republic of Karelia: Petrozavodsk, Russia, 2010.
[91]
Polyakova, I. Pulp and paper shocks. Expert Northwest 2013, 613, 16. (in Russian).
[92]
Kurilo, A.E.; Nemkovich, E.G. Resources encumbrance in Karelian forest sector. Resour. Technol. 2012, 9, 25–28. (in Russian).
[93]
Roslesinforg. Main Indicators of Forest Management in 1988, 1992–2004. (in Russian); Roslesinforg: Moscow, Russia, 2005.
[94]
Minselhoz. Russian State Forestry Development Program 2013–2020. (in Russian); Federal Ministry of Agriculture: Moscow, Russia, 2012.
[95]
Ahonen, A. The Socio-Economic Effects of the Use of Forest Chips from Logging Residues and Small-Sized Trees in Energy Production, Case-Study. Working Papers 47; REDEC: Kajaani, Finland, 2004.
[96]
Egnell, G.; Laudon, H.; Rosvall, O. Perspectives on the potential contribution of Swedish forests to renewable energy targets in Europe. Forests 2011, 2, 578–589, doi:10.3390/f2020578.
[97]
Beland Lindahl, K.; Westholm, E. Food, paper, wood, or energy? Global trends and future swedish forest use. Forests 2011, 2, 51–65, doi:10.3390/f2010051.
[98]
Jonsson, R. Trends and possible future developments in global forest-product markets—Implications for the Swedish forest sector. Forests 2011, 2, 147–167, doi:10.3390/f2010147.
[99]
Karjalainen, T.; Jutila, L.; Leinonen, T.; Gerasimov, Y. The effect of forest policy on the use of forest resources and forest industry investments in Russia. Resour. Technol. 2013, 10, 90–101.
