Projections of Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality from Melanoma in Spain

Objective: The incidence and mortality rates for cutaneous melanoma (CM) have increased markedly in the last few years. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast their progression in Spain up until 2022. Design: A prospective epidemiological study using the Miamod technique. The primary data source was the mortality statistics released by the National Statistics Institute. Study selection: The MIAMOD method was used. Data extraction: Cases of death due to general and melanoma-related mortality in Spain between 1998 and 2007. Results: In men, the incidence is expected to increase from 11.85 (adjusted: 8.52) to 14.79 (adjusted: 9.43) per 100,000 inhabitants over the period 1998-2022. Similarly, the mortality is expected to increase slightly from 5.84 (adjusted: 4.12) to 7.19 (adjusted: 4.49) per 100,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence from 73.72 (adjusted: 52.31) to 95.46 (adjusted: 60.02) per 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. In women, the incidence is expected to increase from 3.79 (adjusted: 3.04) to 6.46 (adjusted: 4.21) per 100,000 inhabitants between 1998 and 2022, although this increase is not statistically significant. The mortality is expected to increase from 1.67 (adjusted: 1.24) to 2.98 (adjusted: 1.86) per 100,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence from 50.04 (adjusted: 44.54) to 84.81 per (adjusted: 56.18) 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. Conclusions: Primary and secondary prevention programs for this disease must be maintained.