Avalia？？o dos métodos de Grant, Vora & Weeks e dos mínimos quadrados na determina？？o do valor incremental do mercado de carbono nos projetos de gera？？o de energia elétrica no Brasil

the objective of this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the grant, vora & weeks and least square monte carlo methods when used to evaluate renewable generation projects developed according to the rules of the kyoto protocol clean development mechanism. the proposed methodology makes use of the newave model in order to generate futures dispatch sequences for all generators connected to the brazilian grid. after that, based on the methodology acm0002, the uncertainty associated to the time evolution of the project's baseline is considered. finally, the carbon market' incremental payoff is estimated using the real options approach. in order to do that, the numerical methods previously mentioned are used under the assumption that the behavior of the carbon price is random and that the price follows a geometric brownian motion