GASIFICACIóN DE CARBóN PARA GENERACIóN DE ENERGíA ELéCTRICA: ANáLISIS CON VALORACIóN DE OPCIONES REALES

the use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. first, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (ngcc) for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new pulverized coal plant (pc) and, alternatively, an integrated gasification to combined cycle plant (igcc). in this last case, the fuel switching option of the igcc plant is analyzed. for the fuel prices, inhomogeneous geometric brownian movement processes are used. in both cases, two prices scenarios are considered with sensitivity analysis. regarding the first case, adaptation to syngas in a ngcc plant is economically desirable, having the project a high sensitivity to efficiency. the sensitivity about investment is not significant, nor to the operating expenses. concerning the second case, the economic convenience of the igcc plant in front of the pc plant is not clear in the price scenarios considered. but analyzed in various combinations of prices, flexible operating igcc plant alternating two fuels can achieve economic advantages. with regard to the sensitivity, conclusions mentioned in the first case are similars for the second case.