Background Algorithms for bone mineral density (BMD) management in HIV-infected patients are lacking. Our objective was to assess how often a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan should be performed by assessing time of progression to osteopenia/osteoporosis. Methods All DXA scans performed between 2000 and 2009 from HIV-infected patients with at least two DXA were included. Time to an event (osteopenia and osteoporosis) was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Strata (tertiles) were defined using baseline minimum T scores. Differences between strata in time to an event were compared with the log-rank test. Results Of 391 patients (1,639 DXAs), 49.6% had osteopenia and 21.7% osteoporosis at their first DXA scan. Of the 112 (28.6%) with normal BMD, 35.7% progressed to osteopenia; median progression time was 6.7 years. These patients were stratified: “low-risk" (baseline minimum T score >？0.2 SD), “middle-risk" (between ？0.2 and ？0.6 SD), and “high-risk" (from ？0.6 to ？1 SD); median progression time to osteopenia was 8.7, >7.2, and 1.7 years, respectively (p<0.0001). Of patients with osteopenia, 23.7% progressed to osteoporosis; median progression time was >8.5 years. Progression time was >8.2 years in “low-risk" tertile (T score between ？1.1 and ？1.6 SD), >8.5 years in “middle-risk" (between ？1.6 and ？2), and 3.2 years in “high-risk" (from ？2 to ？2.4) (p<0.0001). Conclusions Our results may help to define the BMD testing interval. The lowest T score tertiles would suggest recommending a subsequent DXA in 1–2 years; in the highest tertiles, ≥6 years. Early intervention in patients with bone demineralization could reduce fracture–related morbidity/mortality.
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