The longer-term effects of human capital enrichment programs on poverty and inequality: Oportunidades in Mexico

previous empirical research has shown at mexico’s oportunidades program has succeeded in increasing schooling and improving health of disadvantaged children. is paper studies the program’s potential longer-term consequences for the poverty and inequality of esthe children. it adapts methods developed in dinardo, fortin and lemieux (1996) and incorporates existing experimental estimates of the program’s effects on human capital to analyze how oportunidades will affect futurthe earnings of program participants. we non parametrically simulate the earnings distributions, with and without the program, and predict at oportunidades will increase future mean earnings but have only modest effects on poverty rates and earnings inequality.