La probabilidad en el programa de estudio de matemáticas de la secundaria en México

this article analyses the contents under the subtitle "probability notions" of the year 2006 syllabus of mathematics for middle schools in mexico. firstly, it describes the "knowledge and skills" under the subtheme of "probability notions" of the syllabus and determines the key concepts behind them in a way that is comparable, on one hand, to the "fundamental ideas" of heitele (1975) and, on the other hand, to the contents of the current syllabi of five countries: australia, uk, usa, spain, and that of mexico in 1993. secondly, the problems listed under the section: "didactic guidelines" of the 2006 syllabus is analyzed using the elements of a probabilistic literacy as proposed by gal (2005). the comparative analysis shows two elements omitted in the mexican syllabus; they are issues of frequency probability and concerns about expanding the contexts. these issues are addressed/emphasized in the literature reviewed.