Halving Poverty in Mexico

we estimate the required time and the minimum necessary growth rate to halve poverty incidence and poverty intensity in mexico's rural and urban areas for a series of counterfactual distribution and growth scenarios. results show that, given the current income distribution, per capita incomes in the rural area would have to grow faster -in some cases eight times faster- than they have done historically to shrink poverty by half by 2015. in contrast, income in the urban sector would have to grow around 1 per cent per year to reach the same goal, which seems a more reasonable outcome given its behavior in past years.