塔里木河流域农业水土资源匹配研究
Study on the Matching Degree of Agricultural Water-Land Resources in the Tarim River Basin

水土资源是支撑经济社会发展的基础性生产要素，其空间匹配程度直接影响绿洲农业的可持续发展。塔里木河流域水资源短缺且时空分布不均，水资源形成区与农业用地区空间分离。本文基于2000~2023年长时序观测数据，采用垦殖率和水土资源匹配系数，系统分析塔里木河流域农业水土资源匹配关系的空间格局和阶段性差异。结果表明：1) 流域垦殖率呈显著的“北高南低”空间格局。2023年，渭干河、阿克苏河和塔里木河干流的垦殖率相对较高，叶尔羌河次之，开都–孔雀河、和田河和车尔臣河相对较低。2000~2023年，各子流域垦殖率总体上升，部分流域在2020年后趋于稳定或略有下降。2) 不同子流域农业水土资源匹配程度差异明显。塔里木河干流和和田河流域匹配系数相对较高，阿克苏河、叶尔羌河和车尔臣河流域处于中等水平，开都–孔雀河和渭干河流域相对较低；2010~2023年各流域匹配系数最大相差约4.9倍，表明单位耕地对应的农业水资源量存在明显的区域差异。研究结果可为塔里木河流域耕地发展、农业用水配置及分区管理提供科学依据。
Water and land resources are fundamental production factors supporting socio-economic development, and their spatial matching degree directly affects the sustainability of oasis agriculture. The Tarim River Basin is characterized by water scarcity, uneven spatio-temporal distribution of water resources, and spatial separation between water-source areas and agricultural land. Based on long-term observational data from 2000 to 2023, this study employed the cultivated-land ratio and water-land resource matching coefficient to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal variation and changes in agricultural water-land resource matching across the basin. The results showed as follows: 1) The cultivated-land ratio exhibited a pronounced north-south spatial gradient, with higher values in the Weigan River Basin, Aksu River Basin, and the mainstream area of the Tarim River. The Yarkant River Basin had an intermediate value, whereas the Kaidu-Kongque, Hotan, and Qarqan River basins had relatively low values. From 2000 to 2023, the cultivated-land ratio generally increased across the sub-basins, although it stabilized or declined slightly in some sub-basins after 2020. 2) Agricultural water-land resource matching differed markedly among the sub-basins. Matching coefficients were relatively high in the mainstream area of the Tarim River and the Hotan River Basin, moderate in the Aksu, Yarkant, and Qarqan River basins, and relatively low in the Kaidu-Kongque and Weigan River basins. During 2010 to 2023, the maximum matching coefficient was approximately 4.9 times the minimum, indicating pronounced regional differences in water availability per unit area of cultivated land. These findings provide a scientific basis for cultivated-land planning, agricultural water allocation, and differentiated management in the Tarim River Basin.