Scenario-Independent Readiness for Zero-Day Aviation Emergencies: A Multiple-Case Analysis of Adaptive Capacity

While aviation safety management is best where hazards are named and available to be modeled and rehearsed, recent disruptions suggest that event size, coupling, and timing can fall outside planning parameters. This research revisits and narrows the focus on a multiple-case analysis of 10 aviation-relevant disruptions that occurred between 2001 and 2024 to explore the utility of the approach when the scenario catalogue is incomplete. Cases were coded through the utilization of public after-action material and pre-event artifacts, such as scenario catalogues, standard operating procedures, and exercise records when publicly accessible. For five cases, hazard-specific planning was not evidenced in the reviewed record; two were partially modeled and three were fully modeled. Across the sample, repeated response gaps included weak situational awareness, rigid command structures, single-point logistical dependencies, and slow interagency coordination. The analysis also identified three capability anchors for audit and future testing: rehearsed authority migration, rapid common-operating-picture formation, and pre-negotiated mutual aid; it did not test an anchor-versus-impact association. The resulting Scenario-Independent Readiness (SIR) checklist translates these anchors into audit-ready indicators that can be added to safety-management-system reviews without displacing scenario-specific controls. The findings support analytic rather than statistical generalization and should be tested through independent audits and simulations. The contribution is a safety-science framing of zero-day aviation preparedness as a sociotechnical capability at the interface of people, organizations, and digital infrastructures.