This study develops a national-scale techno-economic framework to assess how an oil-exporting country could transition from fossil-fuel dependence toward a solar-hydrogen-gas turbine energy economy by 2050. Unlike previous studies that mainly examine sectoral decarbonisation or renewable deployment in isolation, this work links domestic energy self-sufficiency, hydrogen export replacement, solar PV deployment, electrolyser sizing, hydrogen storage, backup H2CCGT capacity, and capital and operational expenditure within a staged transition pathway. Two scenarios are analysed: first, a winter self-sufficiency scenario designed to meet domestic electricity and hydrogen demand under the most restrictive seasonal conditions; and second, an export scenario in which green hydrogen replaces 2100 PJ？yr？1 of current fossil-energy exports. The results indicate that by 2050 Libya would require approximately 268 GW of solar PV for domestic winter self-sufficiency and 657 GW for the hydrogen export scenario, corresponding to solar farm areas of approximately 4900 km2 and 12,033 km2, respectively. The export scenario requires approximately 491 GW of electrolyser capacity, 78,614 tonnes of hydrogen storage, and 54 H2CCGT units. The estimated total transition cost is approximately USD 1796.9 billion, including USD 1097 billion CAPEX and USD 699.64 billion OPEX. These findings highlight the scale of infrastructure, investment, and policy coordination required for fossil-fuel-exporting economies to maintain energy revenues while decarbonising domestic and export systems.
References
[1]
Song, S., Lin, H., Sherman, P., Yang, X., Chen, S., Lu, X., et al. (2022) Deep Decarbonization of the Indian Economy: 2050 Prospects for Wind, Solar, and Green Hydrogen. iScience, 25, Article ID: 104399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104399
[2]
Murugesan, M., Reedman, L., Brinsmead, T.S., Rifkin, W., Gordon, J. and Megharaj, M. (2023) Modelling Least-Cost Technology Pathways to Decarbonise the New South Wales Energy System by 2050. RenewableandSustainableEnergyTransition, 3, Article ID: 100041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2022.100041
[3]
Burandt, T. (2021) Analyzing the Necessity of Hydrogen Imports for Net-Zero Emission Scenarios in Japan. AppliedEnergy, 298, Article ID: 117265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117265
[4]
Müller, V.P., Eichhammer, W. and van Vuuren, D. (2024) Paving the Way: Analysing Energy Transition Pathways and Green Hydrogen Exports in Developing Countries—The Case of Algeria. InternationalJournalofHydrogenEnergy, 67, 240-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.04.153
[5]
Benasla, M., Hess, D., Allaoui, T., Brahami, M. and Dena？, M. (2019) The Transition Towards a Sustainable Energy System in Europe: What Role Can North Africa’s Solar Resources Play? EnergyStrategyReviews, 24, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.01.007
[6]
Marocco, P., Ferrero, D., Gandiglio, M., Ortiz, M.M., Sundseth, K., Lanzini, A., et al. (2020) A Study of the Techno-Economic Feasibility of H2-Based Energy Storage Systems in Remote Areas. EnergyConversionandManagement, 211, Article ID: 112768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.112768
[7]
Fu, P., Pudjianto, D., Zhang, X. and Strbac, G. (2020) Integration of Hydrogen into Multi-Energy Systems Optimisation. Energies, 13, Article 1606. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13071606
[8]
Kakavand, A., Sayadi, S., Tsatsaronis, G. and Behbahaninia, A. (2023) Techno-Economic Assessment of Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Production from Wind and Solar Energy in Iran. InternationalJournalofHydrogenEnergy, 48, 14170-14191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2022.12.285
[9]
Hou, P., Enevoldsen, P., Eichman, J., Hu, W., Jacobson, M.Z. and Chen, Z. (2017) Optimizing Investments in Coupled Offshore Wind-Electrolytic Hydrogen Storage Systems in Denmark. JournalofPowerSources, 359, 186-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2017.05.048
[10]
Khalil, A., Rajab, Z. and Asheibi, A. (2016) The Economic Feasibility of Photovoltaic Systems for Electricity Production in Libya. Proceedings of the 7th International Renewable Energy Congress (IREC), Hammamet, 22-24 March 2016, 1-6. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294086288_The_Economic_Feasibility_of_Photovoltaic_Systems_for_Electricity_Production_in_Libya?utm
[11]
Papadis, E. and Tsatsaronis, G. (2020) Challenges in the Decarbonization of the Energy Sector. Energy, 205, Article ID: 118025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118025
[12]
Caetano, T., Winkler, H. and Depledge, J. (2020) Towards Zero Carbon and Zero Poverty: Integrating National Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals. ClimatePolicy, 20, 773-778. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1791404
[13]
Kabeyi, M.J.B. and Olanrewaju, O.A. (2022) Sustainable Energy Transition for Renewable and Low Carbon Grid Electricity Generation and Supply. FrontiersinEnergyResearch, 9, Article 743114. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2021.743114
[14]
Rasheed, S.A. (2023) The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth and Stability in Iraq through the Public Expenditure for the Period (2003-2020). InternationalJournalofProfessionalBusinessReview, 8, e02059. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i6.2059
[15]
The Economist (2021) Achieving Net-Zero Carbon Emissions Will Be Eye-Wateringly Expensive. The Economist.
[16]
Dray, L., Sch？fer, A.W., Grobler, C., Falter, C., Allroggen, F., Stettler, M.E.J., et al. (2022) Cost and Emissions Pathways Towards Net-Zero Climate Impacts in Aviation. NatureClimateChange, 12, 956-962. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4
[17]
Goerwitz, R. (2019) Review of Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World—And Why Things Are Better than You Think, by Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling R？nnlund, and Ola Rosling. Numeracy, 11, Article 19. https://doi.org/10.5038/1936-4660.12.2.19
[18]
Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) (2021) The Inevitable Policy Response: Forecast Policy Scenario 2021. Principles for Responsible Investment, London. https://public.unpri.org/download?ac=14916&utm
[19]
World Bank (2023) Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2023. World Bank, Washington. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099611201292422299/pdf/IDU1a62ecb7a1fe3b14b8f1bdef142fb22c17903.pdf?utm
[20]
Our World in Data (2022) Libya: Energy Country Profile. https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/libya
[21]
State of Libya, Ministry of Oil and Gas (2014) Libya Country Paper. Tenth Arab Energy Conference: Energy & Arab Cooperation, Abu Dhabi, 21-23 December 2014. https://oapecorg.org/media/c48589f8-07e1-4745-b82fa62ff4085333/558960152/Presentations/%D9%8419
Xu, Z., Zhao, N., Hillmansen, S., Roberts, C. and Yan, Y. (2022) Techno-economic Analysis of Hydrogen Storage Technologies for Railway Engineering: A Review. Energies, 15, Article 6467. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15176467
[24]
International Energy Agency (2023) Global Hydrogen Review 2023. https://www.iea.org
[25]
Rawesat, A., Mohammed, M., Impey, S. and Pilidis, P. (2024) Greening an Oil Exporting Country: Libyan Hydrogen, Solar and Gas Turbine Case Study. Ecology&ConservationScience: OpenAccess, 4, Article ID: 555633. https://doi.org/10.19080/ecoa.2024.04.555633
[26]
European Commission (2025) ENABLing cryogEnic Hydrogen Based CO2 Free Air Transport (ENABLEH2). LH2-Powered Aircraft Are Coming, But When? European Union. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/769241
[27]
Krey, V., Havlik, P., Kishimoto, P.N., Fricko, O., Zilliacus, J., Gidden, M., et al. (2020) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Documentation 2020 Release. Technical Report, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17115/?utm
[28]
Forsberg, J. (2021) Energy Transition in Transportation: Applying TIMES-Based Energy System Optimisation Models to Sub-National Levels. Licentiate Thesis, Lule？ University of Technology, Lule？. https://ltu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1542925&utm
[29]
Brown, T., H？rsch, J. and Schlachtberger, D. (2018) PyPSA: Python for Power System Analysis. JournalofOpenResearchSoftware, 6, Article 4. https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.188
[30]
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2020) Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling up Electrolysers to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Goal. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf
[31]
(2022) Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen Factor. International Renewable Energy Agency.
