Mapping Current and Future Chili Pepper (Capsicum annuum) Production Areas in the Municipality of Malanville (Benin) in the Context of Climate Change: The Contribution of GIS and MaxEnt Modeling
Chili pepper (Capsicum annuum) cultivation plays a significant role in the agricultural economy of the municipality of Malanville, one of the main vegetable-growing regions in northern Benin. However, the growing effects of climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of this strategic sector. This study analyzes the contribution of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and MaxEnt modeling to the current and prospective mapping of areas favorable for chili pepper production in the municipality of Malanville. The study is based on 35,283 chili pepper occurrence points derived from field surveys and the GBIF database, combined with bioclimatic and environmental variables. Future projections were made for the year 2050 based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model’s performance was validated using the AUC and TSS indicators, whose respective values—greater than 0.90 and ranging from 0.77 to 0.84—attest to the robustness of the predictions. The results show that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and the annual temperature range (Bio7) are the main factors determining the current distribution of chili peppers. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, average annual precipitation also becomes a determining factor. Areas currently classified as favorable and very favorable cover 52% of the municipal territory. By 2050, this proportion is projected to reach 53% under the RCP 4.5 scenario, indicating relatively stable production conditions. In contrast, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, favorable areas would drop to 38%, revealing the crop’s high vulnerability to the intensification of climate change. Furthermore, producers identify climatic constraints as the main obstacle to production (55%), ahead of phytosanitary constraints (25%), technical constraints (15%), and financial constraints (5%). These results underscore the need to promote adaptation strategies based on controlled irrigation, climate-stress-tolerant varieties, sustainable management of natural resources, and the integration of geospatial tools into agricultural planning.
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