This paper investigates the relationship between natural resource rents and economic development in Africa using spatial panel econometric models. The study employs a balanced panel of 54 African countries over the period 2005-2024, drawing data from World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators. The analysis combines non-spatial panel models (fixed and random effects) with spatial autoregressive (SAR), spatial error (SEM), and spatial Durbin (SDM) specifications to account for spatial dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. Specification tests, including Hausman and Moran’s I, guide model selection. The results confirm the persistence of the resource curse across the continent: natural resource rents exert a significant negative effect on GDP per capita in all spatial specifications. Governance and exports contribute positively to economic performance, while population size and gross fixed capital formation exhibit negative effects in the preferred SDM model. The Spatial Durbin Model emerges as the best fit based on AIC/BIC criteria, revealing complex spillover effects: negative spillovers from governance and exports (suggesting competition among neighbors) and positive spillovers from resources, population, and investment (suggesting complementarities). A regional comparative analysis (ECOWAS vs SADC) highlights notable differences: the resource curse is stronger in SADC, while governance plays a more prominent role in ECOWAS. Sub-period analyses (2005-2014 vs 2015-2024) indicate that the negative resource effect has strengthened in the more recent period, coinciding with the end of the commodity super-cycle. These findings underscore that natural resources alone do not drive development; strengthening governance, investing in human capital, and promoting trade openness are essential to foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Africa. Policy implications emphasize the need for regional coordination to maximize positive spillovers and mitigate competitive dynamics.
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