The resurgence of trade protectionism since 2018, epitomised by the United States-China trade war and its cascading global effects, has fundamentally disrupted the operational logic of multinational firms (MNCs) that for decades organised their value chains around the assumptions of liberal, rules-based trade. This article develops a qualitative, theory-driven analysis of the strategic implications of contemporary trade wars for MNCs, drawing on an integrative review of scholarly literature published between 2022 and 2026. Anchored in the theoretical intersection of Resource Dependence Theory (RDT), Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT), and the emerging Techno-Geopolitical Uncertainty (TGU) framework, the study employs systematic thematic analysis across six strategic domains: 1) tariff impacts and cost restructuring, 2) supply chain reconfiguration, 3) foreign direct investment (FDI) redirection and reshoring, 4) market diversification strategies, 5) geopolitical risk management, and 6) organisational adaptation and innovation. Findings reveal that trade wars do not uniformly disadvantage MNCs; rather, they create a bifurcated landscape in which strategically agile firms leverage protectionist disruption as a catalyst for structural transformation, while inertia-bound firms face compounding cost pressures and competitive erosion. The study contributes to international business theory by synthesising geo-strategy, resilience, and dynamic capability constructs into a unified Strategic Response Framework (SRF) for the era of weaponised interdependence. Implications for managers and policymakers are discussed, and an agenda for future research is proposed. This article presents a systematic literature review (SLR) of the strategic implications of trade wars for multinational firms. The review follows a structured search, screening, and thematic-synthesis protocol—consistent with established SLR guidelines (Fereday & Muir-Cochrane, 2006)—and is labelled as such throughout the Abstract, Introduction, and Methodology sections.
References
[1]
Bai, X., Zhou, K. Z., Zhang, B., & Xie, E. (2025). The Dual Effects of Geopolitical Risk on MNCs’ First-Tier Supply Base: A Political Economy Perspective. JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies,56, 1125-1149. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-025-00805-y
[2]
Baldwin, R., & Freeman, R. (2022). Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 153-180. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-113737
[3]
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using Thematic Analysis in Psychology. QualitativeResearchinPsychology,3, 77-101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
[4]
Bu, Q. (2024). Can De-Risking Avert Supply Chain Precarity in the Face of China-U.S. Geopolitical Tensions? From Sanctions to Semiconductor Resilience and National Security. InternationalCybersecurityLawReview,5, 413-442. https://doi.org/10.1365/s43439-024-00125-1
[5]
Buckley, P. J. (2022). Corporate Reactions to the Fracturing of the Global Economy. InternationalBusinessReview,32, Article ID: 102014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2022.102014
[6]
Buckley, P. J., & Casson, M. (1976). The Future ofthe Multinational Enterprise. MacMillan.
[7]
Celestin, A. (2025). The Influence of Trade War Policies on Supply Chain Network Reconfiguration and Supplier Sourcing. Brainae Journal of Business, Sciences and Technology, 7, 1000-1010. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15062765
[8]
Charoenwong, B., Han, M., & Wu, J. (2022). Trade and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty in Supply Chain Networks: Who Comes Home? Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 25, 126-147. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1136
[9]
Contractor, F. J. (2025). Assessing the Economic Impact of Tariffs: Adaptations by Multinationals and Traders to Mitigate Tariffs. ReviewofInternationalBusinessandStrategy,35, 190-213. https://doi.org/10.1108/ribs-01-2025-0013
[10]
Contractor, F. J., Cantwell, J., Gereffi, G., & Sauvant, K. P. (2026). The Shift to a More Turbulent IB Environment, and How MNEs Respond to This Shift. International Business Review, 35, Article ID: 102538.
[11]
Dunning, J. H. (1980). Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests. JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies,11, 9-31. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490593
[12]
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. InternationalSecurity,44, 42-79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
[13]
Fathiya, D. N. (2025). Global Supply Chain Restructuring: Business Strategy Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation. JurnalEkonomiTeknologidanBisnis(JETBIS),4, 176-185. https://doi.org/10.57185/jqn9y759
[14]
Fereday, J., & Muir-Cochrane, E. (2006). Demonstrating Rigor Using Thematic Analysis: A Hybrid Approach of Inductive and Deductive Coding and Theme Development. InternationalJournalofQualitativeMethods,5, 80-92. https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690600500107
[15]
Gao, H., & Zhou, W. (2025). (when) Can Trade Wars Be Good? WorldTradeReview,24, 515-519. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474745625100980
[16]
Harmanci, H. (2024). Navigating Turbulent Waters in the Us-China Trade War and the Role of BRICS in Shaping Global Dynamics. In A. Gedikli, S. Erdogan, & H. ？. Terzio？lu (Eds.), Changing the Global Political Economy: BRICS Countries and Alternative Relations Strategies (pp. 237-274). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-7393-4.ch008
[17]
Hassan, T. A. (2025). Sourcingunder Pressure:Geoeconomic Risk, Firm Dependence,andtheUS-China Trade Conflict. Ph.D. Thesis, Victoria University of Wellington. https://doi.org/10.26686/wgtn.29177102
[18]
Henrika, M., Ariswati, L. D., Kesuma, M. R., Widaryo, C. M., Irianto, E. D. O., & Aini, R. N. (2025). Trade Wars and Tech Giants: The U.S.-China Policy Effect on American Technology Companies. JEMBA:JurnalEkonomiPembangunan,Manajemen&Bisnis,Akuntansi,5, 65-74. https://doi.org/10.52300/jemba.v5i1.20277
[19]
Hosseinkhani, Z., Divino, J. A., & McAleer, M. (2025). Geopolitical Turmoil, Supply-Chain Realignment,and Inflation:Commodity Shocks, Trade Fragmentation,and Policy Responses. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5448354
[20]
Hua, S., & Zeng, K. (2022). The US-China Trade War: Economic Statecraft, Multinational Corporations, and Public Opinion. BusinessandPolitics,24, 319-331. https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2022.18
[21]
Jian, D., & Guo, Z. (2025). Geoeconomic Coercion inthe Digital Age:Tariffs, Trade Wars,andtheTikTok Ecosystem. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15259430
[22]
Jung, Y. S., & Park, Y. (2024). Winners and Losers in U.S.-China Trade Disputes: A Dynamic Compositional Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment. SocialScienceQuarterly,105, 980-995. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13362
[23]
Kadam, A. A. (2025). Resilient Supply Chains under Tariff Volatility: A Digital Twin-Enabled FLEX Model for Strategic Sourcing and Risk Mitigation. JournalofBusinessandManagementStudies,7, 247-257. https://doi.org/10.32996/jbms.2025.7.4.16
[24]
Khan, H., Hayat, K., Adnan, M., & Hussain, M. (2024). The Impact of Trade Wars on Global Supply Chains: A Case Study of the US-China Conflict. SocialScienceReviewArchives,2, 1165-1173. https://doi.org/10.70670/sra.v2i2.167
[25]
Lee, J., & Nguyen, D. V. (2023). The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Domestic and Multinational Companies in China. TheWorldEconomy,46, 2990-2998. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13402
[26]
Li, P. P. (2025). Neo-Globalization with Diverse Strategic Options for Multinational Enterprises. In T. J. Andersen, E. Ashbee, & B. Petersen (Eds.), BusinessandPolicyChallengesofGlobalUncertainty (pp. 73-94). World Scientific (EUROPE). https://doi.org/10.1142/9781800616226_0004
[27]
Lin, X. (2025a). The Sino-US Trade Cost Transmission Mechanism and Corporate Response Strategies under the Background of Escalating Trade Protectionism. ScientificJournalofEconomicsandManagementResearch,7, 269-278. https://doi.org/10.54691/c1hyhb74
[28]
Lin, Y. (2025b). Exchange Risk Management of Multinational Enterprises under the China-US Trade War: Case of Yutong Packaging. Finance & Economics, 1. https://doi.org/10.61173/8c0b7v14
[29]
Luo, Y., & Van Assche, A. (2023). The Rise of Techno-Geopolitical Uncertainty: Implications of the United States CHIPS and Science Act. JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies,54, 1423-1440. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-023-00620-3
[30]
Ma, H. (2022). Real Options and MNE Flexibility: The Strategic Response of US and EU MNEs to the Us-China Trade War. AcademyofManagementProceedings,2022. https://doi.org/10.5465/ambpp.2022.11798abstract
[31]
Ma, H., & Clougherty, J. A. (2022). Third-Country MNEs, Trade Wars, and Competitive Opportunities: A Real-Options Perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 57, 102-119.
[32]
Narula, R. (2023). Multinational Enterprises and the New Geopolitics of International Business. Journal of International Business Studies, 54, 195-210.
[33]
Patel, J. (2025). Navigating Trade Tariffs and Protectionism: Strategic Supply Chain Responses in an Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty. International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research, 7, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i04.50898
[34]
Pedersen, T., & Jensen, P. D. ？. (2023). Resilience: Easier Said than Done—But It Can Be Done! AIB Insights, 23. https://doi.org/10.46697/001c.75254
[35]
Pengfei, L., Agustina Purba, C., Rama Putra Barusman, A., SE.,, Ee, M., & Fadhl Al-Hosaini, F. (2025). The Impact of International Trade Laws on Multinational Corporations Strategic Management. Global Social Science and Humanities Journal, 3, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.59088/gi.v3i1.14
[36]
Pfeffer, J., & Salancik, G. R. (1978). The External Control of Organizations: A Resource Dependence Perspective. Harper & Row.
[37]
Putra, A. D., Ardanesworo, M. F. K. P., & Rukmana, O. (2025). Apple Inc. and the U.S.-China Tariff War: Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risks. EKOMA: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, 4, 8295-8318. https://doi.org/10.56799/ekoma.v4i5.10845
[38]
Raja Hajarath, K. C. (2025). Geopolitical Trade Tensions and Their Strategic Impact on Global Supply Chains. International Journal of Global Innovations and Solutions, 2. https://doi.org/10.63412/69q6b447
[39]
Rugman, A. M., & Verbeke, A. (1992). A Note on the Transnational Solution and the Transaction Cost Theory of Multinational Strategic Management. Journal of International Business Studies, 23, 761-771. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490287
[40]
Sardar, N., Talha, A., & Ahmed, M. (2025). The Consequence of the US-China Trade War on the Global Economy and Multilateral Trade Strategy. International Journal of Applied and Advanced Multidisciplinary Research, 3, 531-556.
[41]
Singh, P., & Kushwah, R. (2025). Effectiveness of Risk Mitigation Strategies in Global Supply Chains. International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research, 7, 112-128. https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2025.v07i03.48247
[42]
Smyrnov, I. (2025). The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Global Supply Chains. Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management, 10, 582-589. https://doi.org/10.52783/jisem.v10i12s.1866
[43]
Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating Dynamic Capabilities: The Nature and Microfoundations of (Sustainable) Enterprise Performance. Strategic Management Journal, 28, 1319-1350. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.640
[44]
Teece, D. J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management. Strategic Management Journal, 18, 509-533. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::aid-smj882>3.0.co;2-z
[45]
Wang, Z., Cheng, F., Chen, J., & Yao, D. (2023). Offshoring or Reshoring: The Impact of Tax Regulations on Operations Strategies. Annals of Operations Research, 326, 317-339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05346-x
[46]
Witt, M. A. (2019). De-Globalization: Theories, Predictions, and Opportunities for Inter-national Business Research. Journal of International Business Studies, 50, 1053-1077.
[47]
Wu, J. (2025). Disruption Risks in Global Supply Chains: Natural Disasters and Geopolitical Events. In J. Wu (Ed.), Global Trends in Manufacturing Supply Chains (pp. 65-91). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-3228-2_3
[48]
Xie, R. (2024). Impact of Geopolitical and Bilateral Trade Frictions on Global Supply Chain Resilience: Strategies for Multinational Corporations. Highlights in Business, Economics and Management, 43, 546-551. https://doi.org/10.54097/44xgyb88
[49]
Zeng, K., Xu, Y., & Xie, Z. (2023). Local Sourcing Embeddedness, Manufacturing Relocation, and Firm Attitudes toward the US-China Trade War: A Survey Analysis of China-Based MNC Subsidiaries. Business and Politics, 25, 91-116. https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2022.27
[50]
Zhang, J. J. (2022). American Multinational Corporations and the U.S.-China Trade War. In K. Zeng, & W. Liang (Eds.), Research Handbook on Trade Wars (pp. 252-270). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839105708.00023
[51]
Zhang, Z. (2025). The Double-Edged Sword: Shock, Resilience, and Strategic Transformation of Chinese Enterprises Amid Sino-American Trade Friction. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 223, 73-83. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2025.gl27746
