全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

A Trapezoidal Fuzzy Heston Model Calibrated to Copper Futures Prices

DOI: 10.4236/ajcm.2026.162006, PP. 96-117

Keywords: Heston Model, Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers, -Cuts, Fuzzy Stochastic Volatility, Copper Futures, Fuzzy Deep Galerkin Method, Fuzzy Calibration, Uncertainty Quantification, Commodity Derivatives

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

This paper develops a fuzzy stochastic volatility framework for pricing and calibrating copper futures contracts under parameter uncertainty. The classical Heston model is extended by representing its structural parameters as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, allowing the model to account for epistemic uncertainty arising from limited data, market illiquidity, and structural misspecification. Using α -cut decomposition, the fuzzy pricing problem is reduced to a family of deterministic Heston-type models indexed by the confidence level α∈[ 0,1 ] . A rigorous theoretical foundation is established by proving the existence, uniqueness, and probabilistic representation of the resulting α -level partial differential equations via an adapted Feynman-Kac theorem. To overcome the limitations of grid-based numerical solvers, a Fuzzy Deep Galerkin Method (FDGM) is proposed for solving the α -level PDEs and calibrating the model directly to market data. The methodology is applied to copper futures prices, and numerical results demonstrate that the fuzzy Heston model significantly outperforms classical benchmark models in terms of calibration accuracy and robustness. The proposed framework provides a flexible and computationally efficient tool for uncertainty-aware pricing in commodity markets.

References

[1]  Geman, H. (2005) Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Wiley.
[2]  Schwartz, E.S. (1997) The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging. The Journal of Finance, 52, 923-973.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02721.x
[3]  Heston, S.L. (1993) A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options. Review of Financial Studies, 6, 327-343.
https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/6.2.327
[4]  Duffie, D. (1990) Futures Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4, 71-94.
[5]  Kangro, R., P?rna, K. and Sepp, A. (2004) Pricing European-Style Options under Jump Diffusion Processes with Stochastic Volatility: Applications of Fourier Transform. Acta et Commentationes Universitatis Tartuensis de Mathematica, 8, 123-133.
https://doi.org/10.12697/acutm.2004.08.08
[6]  Trolle, A.B. and Schwartz, E.S. (2009) Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives. Review of Financial Studies, 22, 4423-4461.
https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhp036
[7]  Gao, X. and Hyndman, R. (2025) Fast Convolution-FFt for Option Pricing in the Heston. arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.05326.
[8]  Dubois, D. and Prade, H. (1980) Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Applications. Academic Press.
[9]  Chrysafis, K.A. and Papadopoulos, B.K. (2009) On Theoretical Pricing of Options with Fuzzy Estimators. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 223, 552-566.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2007.12.006
[10]  Capotorti, A. and Figà-Talamanca, G. (2013) On an Implicit Assessment of Fuzzy Volatility in the Black and Scholes Environment. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 223, 59-71.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2013.01.010
[11]  Guerra, M.L., Sorini, L. and Stefanini, L. (2011) Option Price Sensitivities through Fuzzy Numbers. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 61, 515-526.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.camwa.2010.11.024
[12]  Muzzioli, S. and De Baets, B. (2013) A Comparative Assessment of Different Fuzzy Regression Methods for Volatility Forecasting. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 12, 433-450.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-013-9161-1
[13]  Muzzioli, S., Ruggieri, A. and De Baets, B. (2015) A Comparison of Fuzzy Regression Methods for the Estimation of the Implied Volatility Smile Function. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 266, 131-143.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2014.11.015
[14]  de Andrés-Sánchez, J. (2017) An Empirical Assestment of Fuzzy Black and Scholes Pricing Option Model in Spanish Stock Option Market. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 33, 2509-2521.
https://doi.org/10.3233/jifs-17719
[15]  de Andrés-Sánchez, J. (2018) Pricing European Options with Triangular Fuzzy Parameters: Assessing Alternative Triangular Approximations in the Spanish Stock Option Market. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 20, 1624-1643.
[16]  de Andrés-Sánchez, J. (2023) A Systematic Review of the Interactions of Fuzzy Set Theory and Option Pricing. Expert Systems with Applications, 223, Article ID: 119868.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.119868
[17]  Sawangtong, P. and Najafi, A. (2025) A Novel Stochastic Framework for Pricing European Options on Crude Oil Futures. Applied Mathematics in Science and Engineering, 33, Article ID: 2591750.
https://doi.org/10.1080/27690911.2025.2591750
[18]  Sirignano, J. and Spiliopoulos, K. (2018) DGM: A Deep Learning Algorithm for Solving Partial Differential Equations. Journal of Computational Physics, 375, 1339-1364.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2018.08.029
[19]  Al-Aradi, A., Conde-Pueyo, A., Guyon, J. and Henry-Labord’ere, P. (2018) Solving Nonlinear and High-Dimensional Partial Differential Equations via Deep Learning. arXiv: 1811.08782.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.08782
[20]  Al-Aradi, A., Conde-Pueyo, A., Guyon, J. and Henry-Labord’ere, P. (2019) Applications of the Deep Galerkin Method. arXiv: 1912.01455.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01455
[21]  Zadeh, L.A. (1975) The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and Its Application to Approximate Reasoning—I. Information Sciences, 8, 199-249.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0020-0255(75)90036-5
[22]  Figà-Talamanca, G., Guerra, M.L. and Stefanini, L. (2012) Market Application of the Fuzzy-Stochastic Approach in the Heston Option Pricing Model. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 62, 162-179.
https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v62y2012i2p162-179.html
[23]  Brennan, M.J. and Schwartz, E.S. (1985) Evaluating Natural Resource Investments. The Journal of Business, 58, 135-157.
https://doi.org/10.1086/296288
[24]  Zadeh, L.A. (1965) Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8, 338-353.
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0019-9958(65)90241-x
[25]  Zimmermann, H.J. (2001) Fuzzy Set Theory—And Its Applications. 4th Edition, Springer.
[26]  Cox, J.C., Ingersoll, J.E. and Ross, S.A. (1985) A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates. Econometrica, 53, 385-407.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1911242
[27]  Kloeden, P.E. and Platen, E. (1999) Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations. Springer.
[28]  Karatzas, I. and Shreve, S.E. (1991) Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus. 2nd Edition, Springer.
[29]  Oksendal, B. (2003) Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications. 6th Edition, Springer.
[30]  Friedman, A. (1975) Stochastic Differential Equations and Applications. Academic Press.
[31]  Pham, H. (2009) Continuous-Time Stochastic Control and Optimization with Financial Applications. Springer.
[32]  Dubois, D. and Prade, H. (1978) Operations on Fuzzy Numbers. International Journal of Systems Science, 9, 613-626.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00207727808941724
[33]  Beck, C., Weinan, E. and Jentzen, A. (2019) Machine Learning Approximation Algorithms for High-Dimensional Fully Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations and Second-Order Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29, 1563-1619.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-018-9525-3
[34]  Fleming, W. and Soner, H.M. (2006) Controlled Markov Processes and Viscosity Solutions. Springer.
[35]  Gatheral, J. (2006) The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner’s Guide. Wiley.
[36]  Carlsson, C. and Fullér, R. (2001) On Possibilistic Mean Value and Variance of Fuzzy Numbers. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 122, 315-326.
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-0114(00)00043-9
[37]  Andersen, L.B.G. and Piterbarg, V.V. (2010) Interest Rate Modeling. Atlantic Financial Press.
[38]  Kingma, D.P. and Ba, J. (2015) Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization. arXiv: 1412.6980.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.6980

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133