Risk Analysis and Impact of Technology Advancements, Cost Changes, and Opportunities from Electrolysing Sea Water

Green hydrogen (H₂) has garnered significant scholarly interest as a viable strategy for the decarbonisation of sectors that are challenging to electrify, while simultaneously promoting the proliferation of renewable energy resources. As the global appetite for clean energy escalates, the significance of hydrogen in fulfilling prospective energy requirements becomes increasingly paramount. Nonetheless, literature offers little insights into the risk factors for hydrogen production through seawater electrolysis, particularly within the framework of early technologies and economic dynamics. Thus, there is a less than a comprehensive understanding of the viability and scalability of seawater electrolysis for the generation of green hydrogen. To mitigate this research void, the current investigation undertakes a systematic risk assessment, scrutinising various critical determinants that affect hydrogen production via seawater electrolysis. Specifically, the analysis appraises the capital investments necessitated for photovoltaic (PV) systems and electrolysers, the efficiency metrics of both technological approaches, and the operational and maintenance (O&M) expenditures. By integrating these essential components, the research aspires to offer an exhaustive comprehension of the financial and operational risks, while also examining the prospective ramifications of technological innovations and cost fluctuations on the future trajectory of seawater electrolysis for green hydrogen production. The findings reveal a pronounced sensitivity of the aggregate project cost to presumptions concerning PV and electrolyser efficiency and capital expenditure. Throughout the analysed scenarios, total project costs exhibit considerable variability, oscillating between approximately 498.24 billion USD and 2913.84 billion USD, thereby highlighting significant economic uncertainty. Qualitatively, the results illustrate those ongoing reductions in costs and enhancements in efficiency of PV and electrolysis technologies are vital facilitators for bolstering economic feasibility, whereas enduring cost and performance risks continue to pose a formidable obstacle to the large-scale implementation of seawater electrolysis.