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Finance 2026
绿色杠杆的双刃剑效应：环保投资对企业信用风险的非线性影响及动态调节机制研究
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Abstract:
在全球绿色金融快速发展与中国“双碳”目标推进的背景下，企业环保投资的经济与风险效应亟待系统评估。本研究基于2016~2023年1186家中国上市公司数据，运用KMV模型测度信用风险，通过双向固定效应模型揭示环保投资对信用风险的非线性影响机制。研究发现：(1) 环保投资与信用风险呈显著U型关系，适度投资通过合法性认同与绿色创新降低风险，但过度投资因成本挤压与资源错配加剧风险；(2) 内部控制显著弱化U型曲线陡度，高内控企业环保投资的边际风险效应降低；本研究突破传统环境规制视角，将环保投资重构为企业战略决策，揭示“绿色杠杆”的双刃剑效应，为优化企业ESG投资组合与监管部门制定差异化绿色金融政策提供理论依据。
Against the backdrop of rapid global green finance development and China’s advancement of its dual carbon goals, the economic and risk implications of corporate environmental investments warrant systematic evaluation. Drawing upon data from 1186 Chinese listed companies spanning 2016 to 2023, this study employs the KMV model to measure credit risk and utilizes a two-way fixed effects model to uncover the non-linear impact mechanism of environmental investments on credit risk. Findings indicate: (1) Environmental investments exhibit a significant U-shaped relationship with credit risk. Moderate investment reduces risk through enhanced legitimacy recognition and green innovation, whereas excessive investment exacerbates risk due to cost compression and resource misallocation; (2) Internal controls significantly flatten the U-curve’s steepness, reducing the marginal risk effect of environmental investments in firms with strong internal governance. This study transcends traditional environmental regulation perspectives by reframing environmental investments as strategic corporate decisions, revealing the double-edged sword effect of “green leverage”. It provides theoretical foundations for optimizing corporate ESG investment portfolios and informing regulators in formulating differentiated green finance policies.
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