Current climate change trends are leading to the emergence of meteorological and climatic risks for agriculture. To better understand these risks, it is essential to analyse current trends in meteorological and agro-meteorological indicators. This study examines the variability of these indicators in the Faranah region in order to understand local climate dynamics and assess their implications for the agro-climatic system. The assessment of agroclimatic resources is based mainly on the sum of active temperatures (STA), Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient (GTK) and the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The study highlights annual and interannual variations and current trends in temperature, rainfall anomalies and agroclimatic indices. Three phases appear between 1994 and 2024: wet (1994-2000), dry (2001-2007) and unstable (2007-2024). The sum of active temperatures remains stable overall, except between 2001 and 2008. These dynamics reflect the impact of climate change, accentuated by human activity, and highlight the urgent need for agroclimatic adaptations.
References
[1]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2022) Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
[2]
Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K. and Dissani, B.M. (2022) The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from Panel Data Analysis. Sustainability, 14, Article 759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020759
[3]
Tessema, I. and Simane, B. (2019) Vulnerability Analysis of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Variability and Change: An Agro-Ecological System-Based Approach in the Fincha’a Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Ecological Processes, 8, Article No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-019-0159-7
[4]
Kourouma, J.M. (2015) Study of the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Forest Guinea: For Farmers in Peri-Urban Rural Areas of the Municipality of N’Zérékoré South-Eastern Guinea. Ph.D. Thesis, Centre Regional Agrhymet. (In French)
[5]
Thurlow, J., Zhu, T.J. and Diao, X.S. (2009) The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Economic Growth and Poverty in Zambia. International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161986 https://cgspace.cgiar.org/items/a5e04f8b-0409-4fd7-83f1-35f224ca03d7
[6]
Traoré, A.F., Diallo, M.L., Bamba, Z. and Mara, F. (2002) Initial Communication in Guinea to the Framework Convention United Nations Change Climate. Ministry of Mining, Geology and Environment. (In French) https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/guinc1.pdf?utm
[7]
Jalloh, A., Nelson, G.C., Thomas, T.S., Zougmoré, R. and Roy-Macauley, H. (2013) West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute.
[8]
CEDEAO-CSAO/OCDE (2008) Climate and Climate Changes. Environment Series, Ouest Africa Regional Integration Atlas. (In French) https://www.oecd.org/fr/about/directorates/sahel-and-west-africa-club.html
[9]
Brown, O. and Crawford, A. (2008) Climate Change: A New Threat to Stability in West Africa? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso. African Security Review, 17, 39-57. https://doi.org/10.1080/10246029.2008.9627482
[10]
Ackerl, T., Weldemariam, L.F., Nyasimi, M. and Ayanlade, A. (2023) Climate Change Risk, Resilience, and Adaptation among Rural Farmers in East Africa: A Literature Review. Regional Sustainability, 4, 185-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2023.05.004
[11]
Beavogui, M. (2012) Impacts of Climate Change on the Cultivation of Upland Rice in Upper Guinea and Proposed Adaptation Strategies. Ph.D. Thesis, Agrhymet Regional Centre. (In French) https://fr.scribd.com/document/949597352/Memoire-Riz-impacts-changement-climatiques?utm
[12]
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Environment, Water and Forests (2007) National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change of the Republic of Guinea. (In French) https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/gin01f.pdf?utm
[13]
Loua, R.T., Beavogui, M., Bencherif, H., Barry, A.B., Bamba, Z. and Mazodier, C.A. (2017) Climatology of Guinea: Study of Climate Variability in N’zerekore. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology A, 7, 215-233. https://doi.org/10.17265/2161-6256/2017.04.001
[14]
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2011) WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2010. WMO No. 1074. https://library.wmo.int/viewer/56348/download?file=wmo_1074_en.pdf&navigator=1&type=pdf&utm
[15]
Грингоф, И.Г. and Павлова, В.Н. (2013) Основы Сельскохозяйственной Метео-рологии. Том III. Часть 1. Основы Агроклиматологии. Часть 2. Влияние изменений климата на экосистемы, агросферу и сельскохозяйственное производство. Обнинск: ФГБУ «ВНИИГМИ-МЦД», 384 p. https://mgmtmo.ru/edumat/agro/agroclimatology.pdf?utm
[16]
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2011) Knowing Climate for Action: A Global Framework for Climate Services to Strengthen the Position of the Most Vulnerable. OMM No. 1066. (In French) https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1066_fr.pdf
[17]
Haba, S., Bamba, Z., Diaby, I. and Mansaré, T. (2022) Caractérisation de la fluctuation pluviométrique de la Guinée à l’aide de l’indice standardisé de la précipitation (SPI). Afrique SCIENCE, 21, 102-112. https://www.afriquescience.net/admin/postpdfs/4300ac52b2417fd51865a98f236f91111719976601.pdf
[18]
Global Forest Watch (n.d.) Faranah, Guinea—Deforestation Rates & Statistics [Tableau de bord interactif]. https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/GIN/3/?dashboardPrompts
