|
|
猪场尼帕病毒传播的动力学建模与多措施防控评估
|
Abstract:
尼帕病毒(NiV)在猪场中的传播构成重大公共卫生威胁。本研究建立SEAIRS-SEI人猪耦合模型，通过理论分析和数值模拟评估三种控制措施的效果。结果表明：当基本再生数R0小于1时疫情可控，当R0大于1时可能暴发疫情；单一措施效果有限，而工人防护(ε)、有效治疗(φ)和猪群扑杀(ξ)三措施协同可将R0降至0.63，实现有效防控。本研究为尼帕病毒防控提供了重要理论依据。
Nipah Virus (NiV) transmission in pig farms poses a significant public health threat. This study establishes a coupled human-pig SEAIRS-SEI model to assess the effectiveness of three control measures through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. The results indicate that an outbreak is controllable when the basic reproduction number (R？) is less than 1, but may escalate if R？ exceeds 1. While individual measures show limited efficacy, the combined implementation of worker protection (ε), effective treatment (φ), and pig culling (ξ) can synergistically reduce R？ to 0.63, thereby achieving effective containment. This research provides an important theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of Nipah Virus outbreaks.
| [1] | Goh, K.J., Tan, C.T., Chew, N.K., Tan, P.S.K., Kamarulzaman, A., Sarji, S.A., et al. (2000) Clinical Features of Nipah Virus Encephalitis among Pig Farmers in Malaysia. New England Journal of Medicine, 342, 1229-1235. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm200004273421701 |
| [2] | Hsu, V.P., Hossain, M.J., Parashar, U.D., Ali, M.M., Ksiazek, T.G., Kuzmin, I., et al. (2004) Nipah Virus Encephalitis Reemergence, Bangladesh. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 10, 2082-2087. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1012.040701 |
| [3] | Chua, K.B., Bellini, W.J., Rota, P.A., Harcourt, B.H., Tamin, A., Lam, S.K., et al. (2000) Nipah Virus: A Recently Emergent Deadly Paramyxovirus. Science, 288, 1432-1435. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5470.1432 |
| [4] | Goh, G.K., Dunker, A.K., Foster, J.A. and Uversky, V.N. (2020) Nipah Shell Disorder, Modes of Infection, and Virulence. Microbial Pathogenesis, 141, Article 103976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.micpath.2020.103976 |
| [5] | Halpin, K., Young, P.L., Field, H.E. and Mackenzie, J.S. (2000) Isolation of Hendra Virus from Pteropid Bats: A Natural Reservoir of Hendra Virus. Journal of General Virology, 81, 1927-1932. https://doi.org/10.1099/0022-1317-81-8-1927 |
| [6] | Yob, J.M., Field, H., Rashdi, A.M., Morrissy, C., van der Heide, B., Rota, P., et al. (2001) Nipah Virus Infection in Bats (Order Chiroptera) in Peninsular Malaysia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 7, 439-441. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid0703.017312 |
| [7] | Aditi, and Shariff, M. (2019) Nipah Virus Infection: A Review. Epidemiology and Infection, 147, e95. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268819000086 |
| [8] | Shete, A.M., Radhakrishnan, C., Pardeshi, P.G., Yadav, P.D., Jain, R., Sahay, R.R., et al. (2021) Antibody Response in Symptomatic & Asymptomatic Nipah Virus Cases from Kerala, India. Indian Journal of Medical Research, 154, 533-535. https://doi.org/10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_4388_20 |
| [9] | Ramachandran, R., Jose, M.S., Sahay, R.R. and Shete, A. (2022) Sero-Prevalence of Nipah Antibodies among Close Contacts of the Index Case during 2019 Ernakulam Outbreak. Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, 11, 2479-2482. https://doi.org/10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1731_21 |
| [10] | Sultana, J. and N. Podder, C. (2016) Mathematical Analysis of Nipah Virus Infections Using Optimal Control Theory. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 4, 1099-1111. https://doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2016.46114 |
| [11] | Mondal, M.K., Hanif, M. and Biswas, M.H.A. (2017) A Mathematical Analysis for Controlling the Spread of Nipah Virus Infection. International Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 37, 185-197. https://doi.org/10.1080/02286203.2017.1320820 |
| [12] | Agarwal, P. and Singh, R. (2020) Modelling of Transmission Dynamics of Nipah Virus (NIV): A Fractional Order Approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 547, Article 124243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.124243 |
| [13] | Barua, S. and Dénes, A. (2023) Global Dynamics of a Compartmental Model for the Spread of Nipah Virus. Heliyon, 9, e19682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19682 |
| [14] | Biswas, M.H.A. (2012) Model and Control Strategy of the Deadly Nipah Virus (NIV) Infections in Bangladesh. Re-search Reviews in Biosciences, 6, 370-377. |
| [15] | Biswas, M.H.A. (2014) Optimal Control of Nipah Virus (NIV) Infections: A Bangladesh Scenario. Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics: Advances and Applications, 12, 77-104. |
| [16] | Das, S., Das, P. and Das, P. (2020) Control of Nipah Virus Outbreak in Commercial Pig-Farm with Biosecurity and Culling. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 15, Article 64. https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/2020047 |
| [17] | Looi, L.M. and Chua, K.B. (2007) Lessons from the Nipah Virus Outbreak in Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Pathology, 29, 63-67. |
| [18] | Orosco, F. (2023) Advancing the Frontiers: Revolutionary Control and Prevention Paradigms against Nipah Virus. Open Veterinary Journal, 13, 1056-1070. https://doi.org/10.5455/ovj.2023.v13.i9.1 |
| [19] | Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J.A.P. and Roberts, M.G. (2009) The Construction of Next-Generation Matrices for Compartmental Epidemic Models. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 7, 873-885. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0386 |
| [20] | Murray, J.D. (2007) Mathematical Biology: I. An Introduction (Vol. 17). Springer Science and Business Media. |
| [21] | Phaijoo, G. and Gurung, D. (2017) Mathematical Model of Dengue Disease Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures. Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science, 23, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.9734/jamcs/2017/33955 |
| [22] | van den Driessche, P. and Watmough, J. (2002) Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 180, 29-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00108-6 |
| [23] | Smith, H.L. and Waltman, P. (1995) The Theory of the Chemostat: Dynamics of Microbial Competition. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511530043 |
| [24] | Wang, X., Tan, L., Wang, X., Liu, W., Lu, Y., Cheng, L., et al. (2020) Comparison of Nasopharyngeal and Oropharyngeal Swabs for SARS-CoV-2 Detection in 353 Patients Received Tests with Both Specimens Simultaneously. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 94, 107-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.023 |
| [25] | Hellewell, J., Russell, T.W., Beale, R., Kelly, G., Houlihan, C., Nastouli, E., et al. (2021) Estimating the Effectiveness of Routine Asymptomatic PCR Testing at Different Frequencies for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Infections. BMC Medicine, 19, Article No. 106. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01982-x |
