文旅融合背景下乡村旅游经济韧性测度及时空演变特征——以黑龙江省为例
Measurement and Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Rural Tourism Economic Resilience under the Background of Cultural and Tourism Integration—A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

面对复杂多变的外部环境，提升乡村旅游经济韧性对推动乡村振兴、促进区域可持续发展具有重大战略意义。文旅融合作为赋能乡村旅游高质量发展的重要路径，其与经济韧性的内在关联与时空演化机制亟待深入解析，这对优化区域文旅政策、构建韧性发展模式具有关键研究价值。本文以黑龙江省40个县为实证案例，根据构建2015~2022年相关数据的指标体系，综合运用熵权TOPSIS法、核密度估计与空间分析法，对2015~2022年乡村旅游经济韧性的时空演变特征进行系统剖析。研究结果表明：① 从发展水平看，黑龙江省乡村旅游经济韧性均值从2015年的0.163提升至2022年的0.237，整体呈波动上升态势，但区域差异显著，呈现出“南高北低、东强西弱”的分布特征。② 从时序演变看，研究期内韧性水平区域绝对差异持续扩大；核密度分布由2015年的右偏单峰形态演变为2022年的“A”型双峰形态，揭示出文旅融合程度不同的县域群体间韧性水平两极分化的显著特征。③ 从空间格局看，韧性水平呈现出明显的“东部高、西部低”空间分异，其空间结构经历了从初期的“分散无序”到“核心–边缘”，再向公共卫生事件冲击下“多中心”模式的动态演进。本研究从文旅融合视角揭示了乡村旅游经济韧性的动态时空演化机制，为边境地区乡村旅游的韧性构建与政策优化提供了微观县域层面的理论支撑与实践路径，也为优化区域文旅政策、推动乡村产业可持续发展提供了科学依据。
Facing a complex and ever-changing external environment, enhancing the economic resilience of rural tourism is of great strategic significance for promoting rural revitalization and regional sustainable development. As an important path to empower the high-quality development of rural tourism, the intrinsic connection and spatiotemporal evolution mechanism between cultural and tourism integration and economic resilience urgently need in-depth analysis. This is of crucial research value for optimizing regional cultural and tourism policies and constructing a resilient development model. This paper takes 40 counties in Heilongjiang Province as empirical cases, and based on an indicator system constructed using relevant data from 2015 to 2022, comprehensively employs the entropy weight TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, and spatial analysis methods to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rural tourism economic resilience from 2015 to 2022. The research results show that: ① In terms of development level, the average economic resilience of rural tourism in Heilongjiang Province increased from 0.163 in 2015 to 0.237 in 2022, showing a fluctuating upward trend overall, but with significant regional differences, exhibiting a distribution characteristic of “high in the south and low in the north, strong in the east and weak in the west”. ② In terms of temporal evolution, the absolute regional differences in resilience levels continued to expand during the study period; the kernel density distribution evolved from a right-skewed unimodal shape in 2015 to an “A”-shaped bimodal shape in 2022, revealing the significant characteristic of polarization in resilience levels among