Mountain cities play a crucial role in maintaining global ecological security. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and habitat quality in these areas holds significant value and meaning for the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This study focuses on Xiuning County, a typical mountain city in China, utilizing land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. The PLUS model is employed to investigate land use expansion factors and conduct multi-scenario simulations for land use in 2030. Additionally, the InVEST model is applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in Xiuning County and predict its condition under various scenarios in 2030. The findings reveal that the primary land use types in Xiuning County include forestland, cropland, construction land, grassland, and water bodies, with forestland occupying the largest area. Between 2000 and 2020, there was an increase in construction land, forestland, and grassland, while cropland and water bodies decreased. The predicted land use pattern for 2030 indicates overall stability, with forestland remaining the dominant type, although changes will occur in specific areas. From 2000 to 2020, the areas of low, relatively low, and medium habitat quality in Xiuning County decreased, whereas the areas of relatively high and high habitat quality increased, indicating an improvement in habitat quality over the past 20 years. The multi-scenario simulation predictions of habitat quality suggest that the ecological conservation model yields the highest quality, followed by the natural development model, with the urbanization development model presenting the lowest quality. Based on the habitat quality of each town, Xiuning County is classified into three regulatory zones: key development zones, flexible development zones, and optimized development zones. Targeted development recommendations are provided accordingly. The results of this study can serve as a scientific basis for ecological environment protection and urban development in Xiuning County and similar mountain cities.
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