In February 2024, a shipwreck off Tobago caused a significant surface oil spill, highlighting the need for accurate modeling tools to support emergency response. This study applies the OpenOil module of the OpenDrift framework to simulate oil dispersion from this event, emphasizing the unique characteristics of shipwreck-origin continuous spills. The model incorporates three-dimensional ocean current data from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), along with wind and wave forcing, to simulate surface drift and weathering under tropical conditions. Validation against satellite imagery (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2) and in-situ observations was performed using the Success Rate (SR), Centroid Displacement Index (CI), and Centroid Skill Score (CSS). OpenOil effectively reproduced observed spill trajectories, with CSS values between 0.89 and 0.98. Model sensitivity was primarily influenced by wind conditions and oil properties. These findings demonstrate OpenOil’s utility in simulating complex spill scenarios and underscore the need for scenario-specific calibration, improved environmental forcing, and expanded satellite-based validation for future response efforts.
References
[1]
Yang, J., Hu, Y., Zhang, J., Ma, Y., Li, Z. and Jiang, Z. (2023) Identification of Marine Oil Spill Pollution Using Hyperspectral Combined with Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing. FrontiersinMarineScience, 10, Article 1135356. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1135356
[2]
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2024) Oil Spills: Environmental Impacts and Response. https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/oil-spills
[3]
ScienceDaily (2024) Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Study Could Lead to Overhaul of Cleanup Processes Worldwide. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/01/240122144353.htm
[4]
National Research Council (2024) Biological Effects of Oil Releases in Marine Environments. NCBI Bookshelf. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK220710/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2023) Fiscal Year 2023: Providing Scientific Expertise for Oil and Chemical Spill Response. https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills/fiscal-year-2023-providing-scientific-expertise-oil-and-chemical-spill
[7]
Psarros, G., Skjong, R. and Vanem, E. (2011) Risk Acceptance Criterion for Tanker Oil Spill Risk Reduction Measures. MarinePollutionBulletin, 62, 116-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.09.003
[8]
Abou Samra, R.M. and Ali, R.R. (2024) Tracking the Behavior of an Accidental Oil Spill and Its Impacts on the Marine Environment in the Eastern Mediterranean. MarinePollutionBulletin, 198, Article ID: 115887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115887
[9]
Kristiansen, S. and Haugen, S. (2022). Maritime Transportation: Safety Management and Risk Analysis. 2nd Edition, Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003055464
[10]
Dagestad, K., Röhrs, J., Breivik, Ø. and Ådlandsvik, B. (2018) OpenDrift V1.0: A Generic Framework for Trajectory Modelling. GeoscientificModelDevelopment, 11, 1405-1420. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1405-2018
[11]
Papaioannou, V. (2025) Assessment of Oil Spill Dispersion and Weathering Processes in Saronic Gulf. AdvancesinHydrology&Meteorology, 2, No. 5. https://doi.org/10.33552/ahm.2025.02.000550
[12]
Barker, C.H., Kourafalou, V.H., Beegle-Krause, C., Boufadel, M., Bourassa, M.A., Buschang, S.G., et al. (2020) Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response. JournalofMarineScienceandEngineering, 8, Article 668. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8090668
[13]
Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center (2024) Tobago Oil Spill: What You Need to Know. https://ttweathercenter.com/2024/02/11/tobago-oil-spill-what-you-need-to-know/
[14]
European Space Agency (ESA) (2024) Tobago Oil Spill [Satellite Image]. https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2024/02/Tobago_oil_spill
[15]
Ganase, A., Kanhai, A., Lochan, H. and Gooding, N. (2023) A Guide to Coral Reef and Seagrass Restoration in Tobago (Version 1). Marine Resilience Initiative, Institute of Marine Affairs. https://www.ima.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMA_RestorationGuide_Tobago-MARIN.pdf
[16]
Tavares, R., Carreon-Zapiain, M.T. and Perez-Jimenez, J.C. (2024) Vulnerability of Elasmobranchs Caught by Artisanal Fishery in the Southeastern Caribbean. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 79, Article ID: 103851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103851
[17]
Purohit, B.K., Tewari, S., Prasad, K.S.N.V., Talari, V.K., Pandey, N., Choudhury, P. and Panda, S.S. (2024) Marine Oil Spill Clean-Up: A Review on Technologies with Recent Trends and Challenges. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 80, Article ID: 103876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103876
[18]
Dookie, I., Rocke, S., Singh, A. and Ramlal, C.J. (2018) Evaluating Wind Speed Probability Distribution Models with a Novel Goodness of Fit Metric: A Trinidad and Tobago Case Study. InternationalJournalofEnergyandEnvironmentalEngineering, 9, 323-339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-018-0271-y
[19]
Li, Z., Spaulding, M.L. and French-McCay, D. (2017) An Algorithm for Modeling Entrainment and Naturally and Chemically Dispersed Oil Droplet Size Distribution under Surface Breaking Wave Conditions. MarinePollutionBulletin, 119, 145-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2017.03.048
[20]
Serra, T., Granata, T., Colomer, J., Stips, A., Møhlenberg, F. and Casamitjana, X. (2003) The Role of Advection and Turbulent Mixing in the Vertical Distribution of Phytoplankton. Estuarine, CoastalandShelfScience, 56, 53-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0272-7714(02)00120-8
[21]
Tkalich, P. and Chan, E.S. (2002) Vertical Mixing of Oil Droplets by Breaking Waves. MarinePollutionBulletin, 44, 1219-1229. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-326x(02)00178-9
[22]
Azevedo, A., Oliveira, A., Fortunato, A.B., Zhang, J. and Baptista, A.M. (2014) A Cross-Scale Numerical Modeling System for Management Support of Oil Spill Accidents. MarinePollutionBulletin, 80, 132-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.028
[23]
Hole, L.R., Dagestad, K., Röhrs, J., Wettre, C., Kourafalou, V.H., Androulidakis, Y., et al. (2019) The Deepwater Horizon Oil Slick: Simulations of River Front Effects and Oil Droplet Size Distribution. JournalofMarineScienceandEngineering, 7, Article 329. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7100329
[24]
Lehr, W., Jones, R., Evans, M., Simecek-Beatty, D. and Overstreet, R. (2002) Revisions of the ADIOS Oil Spill Model. EnvironmentalModelling&Software, 17, 189-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1364-8152(01)00064-0
[25]
Copernicus Marine Service (2025) Global Ocean Hourly Sea Surface Wind and Stress from Scatterometer and Model. E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS), Marine Data Store (MDS). https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00305
[26]
Copernicus Marine Service (2025) Global Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecast. E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS), Marine Data Store (MDS). https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00016
[27]
Copernicus Marine Service (2025) Global Ocean Waves Analysis and Forecast. E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS), Marine Data Store (MDS). https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00017
[28]
Breivik, Ø., Bidlot, J. and Janssen, P.A.E.M. (2016) A Stokes Drift Approximation Based on the Phillips Spectrum. OceanModelling, 100, 49-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.01.005
[29]
Lamarre, E. and Melville, W.K. (1991) Air Entrainment and Dissipation in Breaking Waves. Nature, 351, 469-472. https://doi.org/10.1038/351469a0
[30]
Keramea, P., Kokkos, N., Gikas, G. and Sylaios, G. (2022) Operational Modeling of North Aegean Oil Spills Forced by Real-Time Met-Ocean Forecasts. JournalofMarineScienceandEngineering, 10, Article 411. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10030411
[31]
Röhrs, J., Dagestad, K., Asbjørnsen, H., Nordam, T., Skancke, J., Jones, C.E., et al. (2018) The Effect of Vertical Mixing on the Horizontal Drift of Oil Spills. OceanScience, 14, 1581-1601. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1581-2018
[32]
Liu, R., Boufadel, M.C., Zhao, L., Nedwed, T., Lee, K., Marcotte, G., et al. (2022) Oil Droplet Formation and Vertical Transport in the Upper Ocean. MarinePollutionBulletin, 176, Article ID: 113451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113451
[33]
Johansen, Ø. (2003) Development and Verification of Deep-Water Blowout Models. MarinePollutionBulletin, 47, 360-368. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0025-326x(03)00202-9
[34]
Johansen, Ø., Reed, M. and Bodsberg, N.R. (2015) Natural Dispersion Revisited. MarinePollutionBulletin, 93, 20-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.02.026
[35]
Delvigne, G.A.L. and Sweeney, C.E. (1988) Natural Dispersion of Oil. OilandChemicalPollution, 4, 281-310. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0269-8579(88)80003-0
[36]
Visser, A. (1997) Using Random Walk Models to Simulate the Vertical Distribution of Particles in a Turbulent Water Column. MarineEcologyProgressSeries, 158, 275-281. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps158275
[37]
Wang, C., Han, L., Zhang, Y., Jiang, A., Wang, J. and Niu, X. (2023) Effects of Physical Properties and Environmental Conditions on the Natural Dispersion of Oil. JournalofMarineScienceandEngineering, 12, Article 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12010047
[38]
Stiver, W. and Mackay, D. (1984) Evaporation Rate of Spills of Hydrocarbons and Petroleum Mixtures. EnvironmentalScience&Technology, 18, 834-840. https://doi.org/10.1021/es00129a006
[39]
Jones, R.K. (1997) A Simplified Pseudo-Component Oil Evaporation Model.: Proceedings of the 20th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program Technical Seminar, Vancouver, 11-13 Jun 1997, 43-61. https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:29000027
[40]
Devis Morales, A., Rodríguez Rubio, E. and Rincón Martínez, D. (2022) Numerical Modeling of Oil Spills in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, Colombian Caribbean. CT&F—Ciencia, TecnologíayFuturo, 12, 69-83. https://doi.org/10.29047/01225383.396
[41]
Adcroft, A., Hallberg, R., Dunne, J.P., Samuels, B.L., Galt, J.A., Barker, C.H., et al. (2010) Simulations of Underwater Plumes of Dissolved Oil in the Gulf of Mexico. GeophysicalResearchLetters, 37, L18605. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044689
[42]
Wing, O.E.J., Bates, P.D., Sampson, C.C., Smith, A.M., Johnson, K.A. and Erickson, T.A. (2017) Validation of a 30 M Resolution Flood Hazard Model of the Conterminous United States. WaterResourcesResearch, 53, 7968-7986. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr020917
[43]
Dearden, C., Culmer, T. and Brooke, R. (2022) Performance Measures for Validation of Oil Spill Dispersion Models Based on Satellite and Coastal Data. IEEEJournalofOceanicEngineering, 47, 126-140. https://doi.org/10.1109/joe.2021.3099562
[44]
Keramea, P., Kokkos, N., Zodiatis, G., Sylaios, G., Coppini, G., Peña, J., et al. (2023) Satellite Imagery in Evaluating Oil Spill Modelling Scenarios for the Syrian Oil Spill Crisis, Summer 2021. FrontiersinMarineScience, 10, Article 1264261. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1264261
[45]
Brekke, C. and Solberg, A.H.S. (2005) Oil Spill Detection by Satellite Remote Sensing. RemoteSensingofEnvironment, 95, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.11.015
