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核事故场外应急新需求与风险评估新技术
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Abstract:
随着我国核电厂周边地区城镇化进程加速，传统静态风险评估方法难以应对动态应急场景下的复杂需求。本文针对修订后的标准《核动力厂环境辐射防护规定(GB 6249-2025)》中核事故场外应急能力面临的新挑战和新需求进行了分析，提出动态辐射场与人员疏散协同模型，旨在量化应急干预措施对公众剂量风险的消减效能。通过集成高分辨率模拟气象场(WRF-CALMET耦合)、放射性核素大气扩散模拟(CALPUFF动态建模)及疏散路径动态优化(时空克里金插值结合A*算法)，突破传统三级概率安全分析(PSA)中静态人口与气象参数的局限性。本研究对我国核事故场外公众剂量风险评估、应急响应管理能力的提升具有重要实践意义。
With the acceleration of urbanization around nuclear power plants in China, traditional static risk assessment methods have become inadequate in addressing the complex demands of dynamic emergency scenarios. This paper analyzes the new challenges and demands for off-site nuclear emergency capabilities following the policy adjustments in the “Regulations for Environmental Radiation Protection of Nuclear Power Plants (GB 6249-2025)”. It proposes a collaborative model integrating dynamic radiation field and population evacuation, aiming to quantify the effectiveness of emergency interventions in reducing public dose risks. By combining high-resolution meteorological field (WRF-CALMET coupling), atmospheric dispersion modeling of radionuclides (dynamic CALPUFF simulation), and dynamic evacuation path optimization (spatiotemporal Kriging interpolation with A* algorithm), the study overcomes the limitations of static population and meteorological parameters in traditional three-level probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). This research holds significant practical value for enhancing nuclear accident off-site public dose risk assessment and emergency response management in China.
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