承德市武烈河流域需水预测研究
Water Demand Prediction of Wulie River Basin in Chengde City

需水预测是指通过科学方法，预测未来某一区域或领域在不同发展水平、用水效率及气候条件下的水资源需求量，为区域水资源规划与管理提供依据。本文以承德市武烈河为研究区域，并以行政区将该研究区域划分为三个计算单元，而后分别对各个计算单元的生活需水、生产需水、生态需水进行预测，最终得到2030年(规划年)武烈河流域平水年(P = 50%)、枯水年(P = 75%)的需水总量分别为8783.28万m³、9657.99万m³。
Water demand forecasting refers to the use of scientific methods to predict the future water resource demand of a certain region or field under different levels of development, water use efficiency, and climate conditions, providing a basis for regional water resource planning and management. This article takes the Wulie River in Chengde City as the research area, and divides the research area into three calculation units based on administrative regions. Then, the domestic water demand, production water demand, and ecological water demand of each calculation unit are predicted separately. Finally, the total water demand of the Wulie River Basin in 2030 (planning year) for the normal year (P = 50%) and dry year (P = 75%) is 87.8328 million m³ and 96.5799 million m³, respectively.