基于计量经济学模型下的公路运输量预测及分析研究
Prediction and Analysis of Highway Transportation Volume Based on Econometric Model

公路运输以其高效便捷特性，成为区域及国际交流的关键纽带。鉴于其重要性，本文聚焦于国内公路运输量的精准预测与影响因素分析。利用2022年2月至2024年11月数据，借助Eviews10.0软件，构建ARIMA预测模型。通过数据平稳性检验与差分处理，确保模型数据平稳。随后，多模型比选确定最优解，并验证其可靠性。最终，采用静态预测法，短期预测2025年3月至2025年5月公路运输量，预测结果为运输规划与政策制定提供有益参考，并助力资源优化配置。
Road transport, with its efficient and convenient characteristics, has become a key link for regional and international exchanges. In view of its importance, this paper focuses on the accurate prediction of domestic highway transportation volume and the analysis of influencing factors. Using the data from February 2022 to November 2024, the ARIMA prediction model was constructed with the help of Eviews10.0 software. Through data stationarity tests and difference processing, the stability of model data is ensured. Then, the optimal solution is determined by multi-model comparison and its reliability is verified. Finally, the static forecasting method is used to forecast the highway transportation volume from December 2024 to February 2025 in the short term, and the prediction results provide good scientific basis for transportation planning and policy formulation, and helping to optimize the allocation of resources.