京津冀地区耕地非粮化的驱动因素分析
Analysis of the Driving Factors of Non-Grain Use of Cultivated Land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

目的：本文旨在分析京津冀地区耕地非粮化的驱动因素，识别核心影响因素，为耕地保护与粮食安全提供科学依据。方法：基于2010~2022年相关数据构建耕地非粮化驱动因素指标体系。通过时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型分析各因素的影响及时空异质性，并结合地理探测器进一步识别核心影响因素及交互作用。结果：结果表明，京津冀地区耕地非粮化是由多种因素交互作用导致，且不同因素对耕地非粮化的影响在时间和空间上呈现出显著差异。进一步分析发现，京津冀地区各城市的核心影响因素也存在明显差异。结论：京津冀地区应综合考虑区域自然条件、经济发展水平和农业投入情况，采取差异化政策，加强耕地保护与合理利用，确保区域粮食安全和农业可持续发展。
This paper aims to analyze the driving factors of non-grain use of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, identify the core influencing factors, and provide a scientific basis for cultivated land protection and food security. Based on data from 2010 to 2022, an index system of driving factors for non-grain use of cultivated land was constructed. The geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was used to analyze the impacts of various factors and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The GeoDetector was further employed to identify the core influencing factors and their interactions. The results indicate that non-grain use of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is caused by the interaction of multiple factors, with significant spatiotemporal differences in the impacts of different factors. Further analysis reveals that the core influencing factors vary among cities in the region. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should take into account the natural conditions, level of economic development, and agricultural inputs comprehensively, adopt differentiated policies, strengthen the protection and rational use of cultivated land, and ensure regional food security and sustainable agricultural development.