基于Landsat时序数据的1995~2024年深圳湾红树林空间分布与NDVI时空变化特征研究
Characterization of Spatial Distribution and Spatial-Temporal Variation of NDVI of Mangrove Forests in Shenzhen Bay from 1995 to 2024 Based on Landsat Time Series Data

本文使用Mann-Kendall + Theil-Sen联合分析了深圳湾红树林从1995至2024年的NDVI时空变化，并使用Pearson分析了红树林NDVI的变化与海平面和海表面温度之间的关系。使用Hurst指数联合Theil-Sen分析对红树林NDVI的未来趋势进行了预测。研究表明1995~2024年中国红树林NDVI空间平均值上升了0.21，线性变化斜率为0.0073。NDVI与海平面高度的Pearson相关系数为0.201，呈现正相关，关系不显著。NDVI与海表面温度Pearson相关系数为0.146。预计在未来深圳湾红树林NDVI值呈上升趋势的面积为658.8 ha，占比89.39%，呈下降趋势的面积为42.93 ha，占比5.82%。
In this paper, spatial and temporal changes in NDVI of mangrove forests in Shenzhen Bay from 1995 to 2024 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall + Theil-Sen joint analysis, and the relationship between NDVI changes and sea-level and sea-surface temperatures was analyzed using Pearson analysis. The future trend of mangrove NDVI was predicted using the Hurst index combined with Theil-Sen analysis. The study showed that the spatial mean of mangrove NDVI in China increased by 0.21 from 1995 to 2024, with a linear trend slope of 0.0073. The Pearson correlation coefficient between NDVI and sea level height was 0.201, and 0.146 between NDVI and sea surface temperature—both positive but insignificant. It is projected that NDVI values in the mangrove forests of Shenzhen Bay will continue to increase, with 658.8 ha (89.39%) of the area showing an upward trend and only 42.93 ha (5.82%) showing a downward trend.