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蒙古高原骤发干旱的时空特征及驱动因素
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Abstract:
近年来，干旱与高温并发现象频发，导致具有突发性、快速发展的“骤旱”事件。然而，蒙古高原生态系统的干旱响应研究主要集中于气象与农业干旱，对骤旱的关注仍显不足。本研究中，基于ERA5-Land再分析数据集的1980~2021年逐日的土壤湿度数据，识别了蒙古高原的骤旱事件，揭示近42年蒙古高原骤旱的时空特征、驱动因素。主要有以下结果：(1) 空间分布上，骤旱集中在东南部和北部，西部较少，强度由西南向东北递增时间上，骤旱事件主要集中在夏季。(2) 探究骤旱的气象驱动机制发现，骤旱事件期间，标准化降水指数(SPI)异常发生率远高于潜在蒸散发(PET)异常的发生率。本研究的发现为蒙古高原干旱监测、适应性管理以及生态系统综合管理提供了重要的科学依据和实践参考。
In recent years, the frequent occurrence of concurrent drought and high temperatures has led to the emergence of flash drought events characterized by their sudden onset and rapid development. However, research on the drought response of the Mongolian Plateau ecosystem has primarily focused on meteorological and agricultural droughts, with relatively little attention paid to flash drought. In this study, based on daily soil moisture data from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset for the period 1980~2021, flash drought events on the Mongolian Plateau were identified, revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of flash drought over nearly 42 years. The main findings are as follows: (1) Spatially, flash drought events are concentrated in the southeast and northern regions, with fewer occurrences in the west, and their intensity increases gradually from the southwest to the northeast. Temporally, these events are mainly concentrated in the summer. (2) An investigation into the meteorological driving mechanisms of flash drought revealed that during these events, the occurrence rate of anomalies in the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is much higher than that of anomalies in potential evapotranspiration (PET). The findings of this study provide important scientific evidence and practical references for drought monitoring, adaptive management, and integrated ecosystem management on the Mongolian Plateau.
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