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基于STIRPAT模型水泥行业CO2和大气污染物协同效应研究
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Abstract:
工业快速发展的同时，导致大气污染和环境治理问题加剧。为早日实现“双碳”目标，本研究从能源密集型工业出发，基于STIRPAT模型和协同效应系数，结合情景分析法对水泥行业大气污染物和CO2协同减排效应进行研究，结果表明，(1) 在2023~2060年间二氧化碳和大气污染物在BAU、PS、ES及SES均表现出良好的减排效果，ES情景减排程度最大。(2) 各减排情景均位于第一象限呈现正协同效应；协同效应系数呈上升趋势。
With the rapid development of industry, the problems of air pollution and environmental governance have been exacerbated. In order to achieve the “dual carbon” goals at an early date, this study starts from energy-intensive industries. Based on the STIRPAT model and the synergistic effect coefficient, and combined with the scenario analysis method, it conducts a study on the synergistic emission reduction effect of air pollutants and CO？ in the cement industry. The results show that: (1) During the period from 2023 to 2060, both carbon dioxide and air pollutants show good emission reduction effects under the BAU, PS, ES, and SES scenarios, and the ES scenario has the greatest degree of emission reduction. (2) All emission reduction scenarios are located in the first quadrant, presenting a positive synergistic effect; the synergistic effect coefficient shows an upward trend.
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