提孜那甫河洪水演进特征与损失量化研究
Flood Routing Characteristics and Loss Quantification of the Tizinafu River

针对提孜那甫河流域防洪能力评估与灾害损失量化需求，基于玉孜门勒克水文站1960~2011年逐日径流数据，采用Fasflood系统构建一维水动力模型，模拟了20年、50年和100年一遇洪水演进过程，并对比分析了自由漫溢与堤防溃决两种情景下的灾情特征。研究结果表明：100年一遇洪水导致194.96 km2淹没范围，造成3014.8万元GDP损失，较50年一遇分别增长2.4%和5%；耕地淹没面积在50年一遇洪水时已达15151.0公顷，表明农业用地在中高频率洪水中即面临显著风险；1.0~2.0 m深水区单位面积GDP损失达11.5万元/km2，揭示经济活动对深水淹没的高度敏感性。该研究建立了重现期–淹没深度–经济损失的定量关系，为流域分级防洪策略制定提供了数据支撑。
To address the needs for flood control capacity assessment and disaster loss quantification in the Tizinafu River Basin, this study developed a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model using the Fasflood system based on daily runoff data (1960~2011) from the Yuzimenleke hydrological station. The model simulated flood propagation processes under 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods, comparing disaster characteristics under two scenarios: free overflow and embankment breach. The results show: the 100-year flood event inundated 194.96 km², causing CNY 30.148 million in GDP losses, representing increases of 2.4% (area) and 5% (losses) compared to the 50-year flood. Agricultural land was highly vulnerable even to moderate floods: submerged cropland reached 15151.0 hectares under the 50-year flood. Areas with 1.0~2.0 m water depth exhibited the highest economic sensitivity, with GDP losses of CNY 115,000/km2. This study establishes a quantitative relationship among return period, inundation depth, and economic loss, providing a scientific basis for graded flood-control strategies in the basin.