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社会经济、空气污染对预期寿命的非线性影响
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Abstract:
本研究基于2000~2020年亚洲48个国家和地区的数据，采用广义加性模型(GAM)，探讨了人均国民总收入(GNIpc)、城市人口率(UPR)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度与预期寿命(LE)的非线性关系。研究发现：(1) 在时间尺度上，GNIpc与LE呈现稳定的非线性关系，而UPR和PM2.5与LE的关系未表现出显著的线性或非线性特征；(2) 在空间尺度上，亚洲不同地区的GNIpc、UPR和PM2.5对LE的影响存在显著差异。总而言之，社会经济因素和空气污染因素对预期寿命的非线性影响不容忽视。
This study, based on data from 48 countries and regions in Asia from 2000 to 2020, employs a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to explore the nonlinear relationships between per capita gross national income (GNIpc), urban population ratio (UPR), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration with life expectancy (LE). The research finds: (1) On a temporal scale, GNIpc shows a stable nonlinear relationship with LE, whereas UPR and PM2.5 do not exhibit significant linear or nonlinear characteristics with LE; (2) On a spatial scale, the impacts of GNIpc, UPR, and PM2.5 on LE vary significantly across different regions of Asia. In summary, the nonlinear impacts of socioeconomic factors and air pollution on life expectancy cannot be overlooked.
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