Regression models with intractable normalizing constants are valuable tools for analyzing complex data structures, yet parameter inference for such models remains highly challenging—particularly when observations are discrete. In statistical inference, discrete state spaces introduce significant computational difficulties, as the normalizing constant often requires summation over extremely large or even infinite sets, which is typically infeasible in practice. These challenges are further compounded when observations are independent but not identically distributed. This paper addresses these issues by developing a novel generalized Bayesian inference approach tailored for regression models with intractable likelihoods. The key idea is to employ a specific form of generalized Fisher divergence to update beliefs about the model parameters, thereby circumventing the need to compute the normalizing constant. The resulting generalized posterior distribution can be sampled using standard computational tools, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), effectively avoiding the intractability of the normalizing constant.
References
[1]
Jin, I.H. and Liang, F. (2014) Use of SAMC for Bayesian Analysis of Statistical Models with Intractable Normalizing Constants. ComputationalStatistics&DataAnalysis, 71, 402-416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2012.07.005
[2]
Park, J. and Haran, M. (2018) Bayesian Inference in the Presence of Intractable Normalizing Functions. JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation, 113, 1372-1390. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1448824
[3]
Murray, I., Ghahramani, Z. and Mackay, D. (2006) MCMC for Doubly-Intractable Distributions. Proceedings of the 22nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Cambridge, 13-16 July 2006, 359-366.
[4]
Møller, J., Pettitt, A.N., Reeves, R. and Berthelsen, K.K. (2006) An Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Distributions with Intractable Normalising Constants. Biometrika, 93, 451-458. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/93.2.451
Gutmann, M. and Hyvärinen, A. (2010) Noise-Contrastive Estimation: A New Estimation Principle for Unnormalized Statistical Models. Proceedingsofthe 13th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Sardinia, 13-15 May 2010, 297-304.
[7]
Matsubara, T., Knoblauch, J., Briol, F. and Oates, C.J. (2022) Robust Generalised Bayesian Inference for Intractable Likelihoods. JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSocietySeriesB: StatisticalMethodology, 84, 997-1022. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12500
[8]
Matsubara, T., Knoblauch, J., Briol, F. and Oates, C.J. (2023) Generalized Bayesian Inference for Discrete Intractable Likelihood. JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation, 119, 2345-2355. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2023.2257891
[9]
Key, J.T., Pericchi, L.R. and Smith, A.F.M. (1999) Bayesian Model Choice: What and Why? In: Bernardo, J.M., et al., Eds., BayesianStatistics, Vol. 6, Oxford University Press, 343-370. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198504856.003.0015
[10]
Bissiri, P.G., Holmes, C.C. and Walker, S.G. (2016) A General Framework for Updating Belief Distributions. JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSocietySeriesB: StatisticalMethodology, 78, 1103-1130. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12158
[11]
Jewson, J., Smith, J.Q. and Holmes, C. (2018) Principles of Bayesian Inference Using General Divergence Criteria. Entropy, 20, Article No. 442. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20060442
[12]
Sellers, K.F. and Shmueli, G. (2010) A Flexible Regression Model for Count Data. TheAnnalsof Applied Statistics, 4, 943-961.
[13]
Hyvrinen, A. and Dayan, P. (2005) Estimation of Non-Normalized Statistical Models by Score Matching. JournalofMachineLearningResearch, 6, 695-709.
[14]
Lyu, S. (2012) Interpretation and Generalization of Score Matching. Proceedings of the 25th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Montreal, 18-21 June 2009, 359-366.
[15]
Xu, J., Scealy, J.L., Wood, A.T. and Zou, T. (2022) Generalized Score Matching for Regression.
[16]
Hyvärinen, A. (2007) Some Extensions of Score Matching. ComputationalStatistics&DataAnalysis, 51, 2499-2512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.09.003
[17]
Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J. and Neter, J. (1984) Applied Linear Regression Models. Technometrics, 26, 415-416. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1984.10487998