全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

Is Forestation Still Good Climate Policy Despite Increasing Forest Fires?

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2025.142011, PP. 206-229

Keywords: Climate Change, Forest Fires, Carbon Sequestration

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Despite the global increase in forest fires in recent years, forestation—the planting of trees in new areas (afforestation) and previously deforested areas (reforestation)—remains a major and relatively low-cost approach for sequestering carbon dioxide. High-resolution satellite data show that the annual incidence of tree death and corresponding carbon dioxide release from stand-replacement forest fires remains low. The analysis applies this incidence as a “hazard rate” in the actuarial sense and arrives at cumulative probabilities of the burning of newly planted trees over time. Even with projected increases in response to global warming, this hazard rate would not reach levels that would substantially negate sequestration gains from forestation. Estimates based on past US experience further suggest that health, property, and other damages from forestation’s addition of potential forest area fuel to burn would be much smaller than the benefit from the additional carbon sequestration resulting from the forestation.

References

[1]  BLS (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) (2024). Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
[2]  Chen, Y., Hall, J., van Wees, D. et al. (2023). Multi-Decadal Trends and Variability in Burned Area from the 5th Version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5). Earth System Science Data, 15, 1-51.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-182
[3]  CIFFC (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre) (2024). Annual Burned Area in Canada.
[4]  Cline, W. R. (1992). The Economics of Global Warming. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
[5]  Cline, W. R. (2022). Median Incomes, China Shock, Climate Metrics, and Debt Sustainability: Collected Papers, 2018-2021. Economics International Inc.
[6]  Davis, K. T., Robles, M. D., Kemp, K. B., Higuera, P. E., Chapman, T., Metlen, K. L. et al. (2023). Reduced Fire Severity Offers Near-Term Buffer to Climate-Driven Declines in Conifer Resilience across the Western United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, e2208120120.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208120120
[7]  EPA (2023a). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021.
[8]  EPA (2023b). Report on the Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances.
https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-12/epa_scghg_2023_report_final.pdf
[9]  EPA (2024). Draft Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2022.
[10]  EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) (2015). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2013.
[11]  FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2020). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: Key Findings.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8/53en
[12]  Hasler, N., Williams, C. A., Denney, V. C., Ellis, P. W., Shrestha, S., Terasaki Hart, D. E. et al. (2024). Accounting for Albedo Change to Identify Climate-Positive Tree Cover Restoration. Nature Communications, 15, Article No. 2275.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46577-1
[13]  IEA (International Energy Agency) (2023). Global Energy and Climate Model: Documentation-2023.
[14]  International Energy Forum (2022). Caverns, Concrete and Carbonate: The Future of Storing Captured Carbon.
[15]  IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report.
[16]  IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report.
[17]  IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers.
[18]  IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report.
[19]  Jäger, F., Schwaab, J., Quilcaille, Y., Windisch, M. et al. (2024). Fire Weather Compromises Forestation-Reliant Climate Mitigation Pathways.
[20]  Liberto, R. (2022). Hazard Rate: Definition, How to Calculate, and Example. Investopedia.
[21]  Lutter, R., Stål, G., Arnesson Ceder, L., Lim, H., Padari, A., Tullus, H. et al. (2021). Climate Benefit of Different Tree Species on Former Agricultural Land in Northern Europe. Forests, 12, Article No. 1810.
https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121810
[22]  MacCarthy, J., Richter, J., Tyukavina, S., Weisse, M., & Harris, N. (2023). The Latest Data Confirms: Forest Fires Are Getting Worse. World Resources Institute.
[23]  Maryland (Maryland Department of Natural Resources) (2024). Firewise Landscaping.
https://dnr.maryland.gov/forests/Documents/fire/Firewise_LandscapingFactsheet.pdf
[24]  Mendelsohn, R., Sedjo, R., & Sohngen, B. (2012). Forest Carbon Sequestration. In R. A. de Mooij, M. Keen, & I. W. H. Parry (Eds.), Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Climate Change: A Guide for Policymakers (pp. 89-102). International Monetary Fund.
[25]  Mykleby, P. M., Snyder, P. K., & Twine, T. E. (2017). Quantifying the Trade‐Off between Carbon Sequestration and Albedo in Midlatitude and High‐Latitude North American Forests. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 2493-2501.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071459
[26]  NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (2024). MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.
https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/about
[27]  NOAA (2024). NOAAGlobalTemp.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp
[28]  Sullivan, J. (1994). Picea Abies. In Fire Effects Information System (pp. 1-12). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory (Producer).
https://www.fs.usda.gov/database/feis/plants/tree/picabi/all.html
[29]  Thomas, D., Butry, D., Gilbert, S., Webb, D., & Fung, J. (2017). The Costs and Losses of Wildfires: A Literature Survey. National Institute of Standards and Technology.
[30]  Tyukavina, A. (2024). 2001-2023 Forest Loss Due to Fire. Database Provided by Special Communication.
[31]  Tyukavina, A., Potapov, P., Hansen, M. C., Pickens, A. H., Stehman, S. V., Turubanova, S. et al. (2022). Global Trends of Forest Loss Due to Fire from 2001 to 2019. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, 3, Article ID: 825190.
https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2022.825190
[32]  US DOI-DOA (US Department of the Interior and US Department of Agriculture) (2023). Reforestation Goals and Assessments, and a Climate-Informed Plan to Increase Federal Seed and Nursery Capacity.
[33]  US Social Security Administration (2024). Actuarial Life Table.
https://ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
[34]  Wawrzynowicz, I., Krey, M., & Samaniego, X. (2023). Assessing and Comparing Carbon Credit Rating Agencies. Perspectives Climate Group.
[35]  White House (2024). Voluntary Carbon Markets Joint Policy Statement and Principles.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/VCM-Joint-Policy-Statement-and-Principles.pdf
[36]  Woodland Trust (2024). European Larch.
https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/british-trees/a-z-of-british-trees/european-larch/
[37]  Zheng, B., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Chuvieco, E., Chen, Y., & Yang, H. (2021). Increasing Forest Fire Emissions Despite the Decline in Global Burned Area. Science Advances, 7, eabh2646.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abh2646

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133